Bitcoin usually sees strong gains in the year after a halving. This cycle, however, has looked different. Instead of explosive volatility, the price has remained relatively calm, even behaving like a stable asset at times.
According to Jan3 CEO and Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow, this quiet phase is temporary, and a major price move is likely ahead.
Earlier this year, the market experienced what Mow described as the largest liquidation flush ever. Altcoins fell sharply, but Bitcoin only dropped around $20,000.
“Altcoins dropped to the depths, but Bitcoin was largely unaffected,” he said, highlighting the asset’s growing resilience.
This shows that while the market experienced stress, Bitcoin’s price could absorb selling without a major crash.
Mow pointed out several reasons Bitcoin hasn’t surged yet:
“Maybe it’s paper Bitcoin, maybe it’s ETFs, maybe it’s profit-taking it could be many things,” he said.
Another factor is the earlier rally in altcoins. Ethereum was reaching new highs, and XRP traded near $3.50, which Mow described as unsustainable. When altcoins correct, Bitcoin often dips briefly but then recovers. This rotation of attention and capital can keep Bitcoin from surging even when demand remains strong.
Mow emphasized that Bitcoin’s limited upside so far does not mean the market is exhausted. Supply constraints and continued demand suggest a price move is inevitable.
“It’s impossible that someone ends up with 10% of the supply at these prices,” he said. “The price has to move sooner or later.”
For now, Bitcoin’s post-halving calm reflects a balance between selling pressure, profit-taking, and capital rotation. But according to this view, the quiet is likely just the calm before the next major move.
Major risks include global recessions, tighter crypto regulations, declining liquidity, or a sustained breakdown below key support levels.
Bitcoin price forecasts for 2030 range from $380K to $900K, driven by scarcity, long-term adoption, and expanding institutional participation.
While uncertain, many long-term projections suggest Bitcoin could exceed $1 million by 2050 if it becomes a global store of value.
Bitcoin’s fixed supply makes it attractive as an inflation hedge, especially during currency debasement and long-term economic uncertainty.
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