The CLARITY Act just cleared the Senate Banking Committee in the most significant regulatory breakthrough for crypto in US history. Bitcoin should be rallying, but instead it is down $6,000 since the vote advanced the bill to the full Senate, wiping $126 billion from its market cap. Ethereum fell more than 10%, erasing $30 billion. The total crypto market cap has dropped $190 billion in just five days.
The CLARITY Act rally was priced in during the weeks of anticipation leading up to the markup vote. The moment the bill actually advanced, traders who bought in anticipation of the event sold into the confirmation. This pattern has played out across crypto at every major regulatory milestone and Thursday was no different.
The bill still needs 60 Senate votes, House reconciliation, and a presidential signature.
Reason Two: Iran Tensions Are Back
Trump’s warning to Iran that “the clock is ticking” earlier this week sent oil above $107 a barrel and triggered a broad risk-off move across global markets. Crypto sold off alongside equities as geopolitical fear returned.
Trump has since said serious negotiations with Iran are now taking place and confirmed he called off a planned military strike scheduled for tomorrow after the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE personally asked him to pause, telling him a deal is within reach. The military has been ordered to remain ready to launch a full-scale attack if an acceptable deal is not reached. The condition is clear: no nuclear weapons for Iran.
Bitcoin was rejected at the 200-day moving average, a major technical ceiling that has capped previous recovery attempts. It is currently sitting at the 50-day moving average support and testing the previous range high simultaneously.
The technical picture from here splits into two scenarios. If bulls hold current levels, Bitcoin could attempt another push toward $83,000. If the $74,000 level breaks, analysts expect a deeper swing lower with limited support until the mid-$60,000 range.
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