Bitcoin has surged to $92,000, gaining nearly 5% in the past 24 hours as excitement builds around Donald Trump’s upcoming crypto summit at the White House. This sudden rally pushed BTC to a high of $92,760 from a low of $87,500 before stabilizing near $91,500.
But something bigger may be at play. Analysts believe a key economic factor, the global M2 money supply, could be fueling Bitcoin’s surge. If history repeats itself, we may be on the verge of a major bull run.
Let’s break it down.
Analysts are closely watching the global M2 money supply, which measures financial liquidity, including cash, deposits, and near-money assets. Historically, Bitcoin’s price has moved in sync with M2 expansion, as higher liquidity drives demand for alternative assets like crypto. Since late 2024, global M2 has been rising sharply, leading experts to predict a major Bitcoin rally from late March to mid-May 2025.
Crypto analyst Colin Talks Crypto pointed out a significant rise in global M2, calling it a “vertical line” on the charts—an indicator of a potential surge in asset prices. He expects the rally for Bitcoin, stocks, and the broader crypto market to begin on March 25 and last until May 14.
A Strong Historical Connection
Bitcoin has closely followed M2 trends in past market cycles. During the COVID-19 pandemic, a sharp rise in M2 coincided with one of Bitcoin’s strongest bull runs, as governments pumped money into the economy. Investors bought Bitcoin to protect their wealth from inflation. On the other hand, when M2 growth slows or declines, Bitcoin tends to struggle due to reduced liquidity for high-risk investments.
Vandell, co-founder of Black Swan Capitalist, believes that global M2 movements have a direct impact on Bitcoin. He notes that when M2 declines, Bitcoin and the crypto market tend to follow about ten weeks later. Despite possible short-term dips, he sees this cycle setting the stage for long-term growth.
Meanwhile, Michaël van de Poppe, a well-known crypto analyst, sees M2 expansion as a key factor for an early market recovery. He highlights that with inflation slowing, expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a weakening dollar, financial conditions are turning favorable for Bitcoin and altcoins.
Economist Tomas compared the current market setup to previous bull cycles in 2017 and 2020, when rising M2 levels aligned with Bitcoin’s strongest years. He suggests 2025 could follow a similar pattern, depending on how much the U.S. dollar weakens.
Meanwhile, macro researcher Yimin Xu predicts the Federal Reserve may soon end its Quantitative Tightening (QT) policy and could even shift to Quantitative Easing (QE) if economic conditions require it. This would inject more liquidity into financial markets, strengthening Bitcoin’s bullish outlook.
With rising liquidity, shifting Federal Reserve policies, and a possible political shift in the U.S., analysts believe Bitcoin could be on the verge of another major rally. March could mark the beginning of a new bullish phase, making it a crucial period for investors closely watching the crypto market.
With history as a guide, all signs point to Bitcoin entering a defining moment in its price cycle.
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