U.S. President Donald Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum on the Strait of Hormuz is about to expire, keeping global markets on high alert. Following this, gold and silver together lost nearly $2 trillion in value.
The crypto market also took a hit, dropping $412 million in the last 24 hours, with Bitcoin alone seeing $121 million in liquidations.
However, Financial experts have outlined two possible scenarios for what could happen next.
On 22nd March, President Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. could strike Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened. This has raised geopolitical tensions.
The Strait of Hormuz is a key oil route, handling about 30% of the world’s oil supply. Any disruption could push oil prices higher. Oil is currently near $110 per barrel, down from its peak of $154. The price drop happened after the G7 and IEA announced a release of 400 million barrels from their reserves to ease shortages.
Meanwhile responded strongly to Trump’s threat, Iran warned that any attack would lead to retaliation against energy and oil infrastructure in the region. Officials said this could keep oil prices high for a long time.
These tensions are worrying financial markets, including crypto, as rising oil prices can increase inflation. Thus, traders are now preparing for two possible scenarios.
In the first case, a resolution or partial reopening of the Strait could bring short-term relief. That outcome may trigger a temporary bounce in Bitcoin and equities, especially if vessels resume movement and ceasefire discussions emerge.
Perhaps analysts believe that any rally may be limited due to upcoming inflation data.
In the second scenario, if tensions continue or escalate, Bitcoin’s price could hit the $66,000–$67,000 range. A drop below this could trigger deeper losses, especially if oil prices surge and liquidity tightens.
Risk assets often struggle when geopolitical stress combines with rising inflation expectations.
Since the start of the U.S.-Israel and Iran conflict, the crypto market has struggled and moved mostly sideways. Last week, Bitcoin jumped to $76K due to strong ETF inflows from institutional investors. However, it has now lost those gains and is trading below $68K.
Traders are also closely watching upcoming inflation data. High inflation usually puts pressure on risk assets like crypto, so any short-term rally could fade if the data comes in strong.
Tonight’s market moves are being seen as a preview of what’s coming next.
Geopolitical risk pushes investors toward safer assets. Rising oil prices also fuel inflation fears, which typically pressure Bitcoin and other risk assets.
If tensions ease, Bitcoin may rebound short term. If conflict escalates, prices could drop toward $66K as inflation fears and liquidity tighten.
Higher oil prices increase inflation, leading central banks to tighten policy. This reduces liquidity, which often weakens crypto and equity markets.
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