Bitcoin, the pioneer cryptocurrency, has climbed back above $65,000 after two days without any U.S.-Iran military strikes. The pause pushed oil prices down by 6% and eased inflation fears.
The move comes just before the July 29 FOMC meeting, where traders expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged.
Bitcoin rose 1.26% to $65,169 over the past 24 hours, closely tracking a 1.41% rise in the total crypto market cap.
The latest move came after the U.S. temporarily halted its bombing campaign to allow diplomatic talks with Iran. Iran also it would pause retaliatory attacks as long as the U.S. did the same.
The fragile pause helped calm energy markets. Brent crude oil fell more than 7%, from around $100 to $83, easing fears that the conflict would push global inflation higher.
That gave risk assets, including Bitcoin, some room to recover.
Bitcoin’s rise was also helped by a sharp short squeeze. Around $45.88 million worth of BTC short positions were liquidated in 24 hours, forcing traders betting on lower prices to close their positions.
Across the wider crypto market, 87,456 traders were liquidated, with total losses reaching about $312.09 million.
The largest single liquidation was a $9.35 million Brent oil position on Hyperliquid, showing how quickly the market reacted to the drop in oil prices.
The Federal Reserve remains the next major market trigger. CME FedWatch data shows a 66% chance of no rate change at the July 29 meeting, while the odds of a 25-basis-point hike stand near 33%.
Bitcoin’s short-term chart remains mixed. BTC is trading near $65,300, but analysts are watching $67,000 as the key resistance level.
A weekly close above $67,000 could turn the chart bullish. If Bitcoin fails to break that level, a move toward the $54,000 liquidity zone remains possible.
Meanwhile, Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson noted that Bitcoin has historically taken around 900 days from each halving to the bottom of the following bear market.
The current cycle has reached 827 days, suggesting a possible final bottom within the next two months. For now, Bitcoin’s recovery remains tied to both the geopolitical situation and the Fed’s next move.
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