Strategy Will Hold 5.8% of Bitcoin Supply by 2033, Predicts Bernstein

Bitcoin is becoming a major part of corporate financial strategies. And no company has leaned into this shift more than Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy. While most firms hold Bitcoin cautiously, Strategy has been buying it aggressively, making it the largest corporate Bitcoin holder.

Now, a bold new forecast from Bernstein suggests the company’s Bitcoin stash could explode past 1 million BTC by 2033.

But how will Strategy fund this ambitious plan? And what happens if Bitcoin’s price doesn’t climb as expected? Let’s break it down.

The Largest Corporate Bitcoin Holder is Still Expanding

At present, Strategy holds 506,137 BTC, making it the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. Bernstein’s latest forecast suggests that number could more than double, reaching 1,013,000 BTC. That would represent 5.8% of Bitcoin’s current circulating supply.

This projection assumes Bitcoin will reach major price milestones in the coming years:

• $200,000 by 2025
• $500,000 by 2029
• $1 million by 2033

How Will Strategy Fund the Bitcoin Acquisitions?

To achieve this level of expansion, Strategy will likely need to raise a significant amount of capital. Analysts predict the company’s debt could climb from $11 billion to $100 billion, while it may also raise $84 billion through equity markets.

Bernstein’s report suggests that lower interest rates and strong investor demand will be critical to making this strategy work.

Bitcoin Market Makers

With Bitcoin still trading below $90,000, many analysts see $90,000 as an important level where investor interest could return. Market makers, who influence short-term price movements, are expected to play a key role.

Data from Deribit shows that market makers are currently “short gamma” at this price level. This means they will need to buy Bitcoin when its price rises and sell when it falls, which could add to market volatility. Despite this, BloFin’s Griffin Ardern believes a bullish move could be ahead, especially as Friday’s options settlement approaches.

What Happens if Bitcoin Peaks and Declines?

Not all analysts believe Bitcoin will continue rising without setbacks. If Bitcoin peaks in 2025 and then enters a long-term decline, Strategy might slow down its Bitcoin purchases. In that case, its holdings may reach only 514,800 BTC, about 2.6% of the total Bitcoin supply.

If the company faces financial pressure, it may even need to sell some of its Bitcoin to manage its debt, which could still rise to around $51 billion, though at a slower pace than in the more optimistic scenario.

Bernstein Remains Bullish on Strategy

Despite the risks, Bernstein remains confident in Strategy’s long-term position. The firm has given the company an “outperform” rating and set a $600 price target, which would be a 75% increase from current levels.

Bernstein’s valuation model applies:

• A 2x enterprise value-to-sales multiple for Strategy’s software segment
• A 55% premium on its Bitcoin holdings, reflecting its market valuation since shifting to Bitcoin in 2020

Regardless of market uncertainty, Strategy continues to add to its Bitcoin holdings. Between March 17 and March 23, the company purchased another 6,911 BTC for $584.1 million.

Love it or doubt it, Strategy’s all-in bet on Bitcoin is shaping up to be one of the boldest financial moves of the decade.

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