Elon Musk’s SpaceX is at the center of a new Wall Street discussion after Morgan Stanley published its latest forecast following the company’s $100 billion Starbase Louisiana expansion plan.
Morgan Stanley sees SpaceX reaching $3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2040, while Elon Musk expects the same figure to be reached by 2033.
The discussion began on X after Morgan Stanley released a new research note on SpaceX’s planned Louisiana expansion. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said the company remains “attractively valued” and kept an Overweight rating.
Morgan Stanley had previously valued SpaceX at about $330 billion by 2030 and projected its value could reach $3.4 trillion by 2040.
The latest model continues to point to the same long-term growth story, with Morgan Stanley now forecasting around $3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2040.
The forecast is based on major growth in SpaceX’s launch business.
Morgan Stanley expects the company to operate 15 launch pads, with three more planned by the end of 2027. If each pad handles two launches a day, SpaceX could complete about 5,800 Starship launches annually by 2040.
Responding to the revenue discussion, Elon Musk said:
“My best guess for ~$3.5T revenue is roughly around 2033.”
That puts Musk’s target about seven years earlier than Morgan Stanley’s forecast.
Musk has also previously said SpaceX could reach $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, with 2029 possible under a faster growth scenario.
This week, SpaceX announced Starbase Louisiana, a new $100 billion spaceport in South Louisiana. The project is expected to expand the company’s launch capacity as SpaceX scales up its Starship operations.
Morgan Stanley expects the new site to support polar and sun-synchronous launches, adding another part to SpaceX’s growing launch network.
At the same time, the company is expanding into AI and orbital computing.
SpaceX plans to increase its computing capacity from more than 2 GW by the end of 2026 to around 10 GW in 2027.
Thus, Morgan Stanley estimates that every additional 1 GW of orbital computing could add about $27 per share to SpaceX’s valuation.
SpaceX (SPCX) closed at $141.50, up around 0.5% over 24 hours. Morgan Stanley’s current valuation stands at $137 per share.
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