MicroStrategy Bitcoin Holdings to Hit 1 Million BTC by 2030 – Here’s the Plan

Bitcoin is currently testing crucial levels below $95,000, with a drop of more than 4% in the past 24 hours. Despite this, PlanC (@TheRealPlanC) has made an ambitious prediction about MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin accumulation. The analyst believes the company could hold over 1 million Bitcoins by January 1, 2030—a target that seems increasingly achievable.

How MicroStrategy Could Reach 1 Million BTC

This prediction is based on a statistical method called polynomial fitting, which uses past data to project future trends. According to this analysis, MicroStrategy could own exactly 1,039,965 BTC by 2030. What’s more, PlanC notes that the company is ahead of schedule in reaching this goal.

Currently, MicroStrategy holds around 386,700 BTC. The trend suggests that by December 8, 2025, the company will surpass this amount, putting it on track to exceed 1 million BTC a year earlier than originally expected. The steady accumulation indicates that MicroStrategy will likely continue its aggressive Bitcoin purchasing strategy.

MicroStrategy’s 2030 Outlook

MicroStrategy has been acquiring Bitcoin steadily, with an average purchase price of $35,180 per coin by April 2024. This has led to an unrealized gain of over 80%. To fund these purchases, the company has increased its share count by over 80% in the past four years. However, this also resulted in a sharp rise in liabilities—from $913 million in 2020 to $3.95 billion by Q1 2024.

As of now, MicroStrategy owns around 386,700 Bitcoins, bought for $21.9 billion at an average price of $56,761 per Bitcoin. While the company’s stock has surged over 515% this year, it dropped more than 15% last week after short-seller Citron Research announced they were betting against it.

Best vs Worst Case Scenarios

MicroStrategy’s future depends heavily on Bitcoin’s price movement. In the worst-case scenario, if Bitcoin’s value collapses before MicroStrategy’s subscription business grows enough to counterbalance its declining legacy revenue, the company’s valuation could drop sharply due to dilution and rising debt. 

On the other hand, if Bitcoin’s price rises significantly, MicroStrategy’s balance sheet would improve dramatically. Bullish predictions for Bitcoin include potential prices of $3.8 million by 2030 (Cathie Wood, Ark Invest), $1 million by 2040-2042 (Chamath Palihapitiya), and even $1 billion by 2028-2030 (Fidelity).

Massive Potential Gains— IF Bitcoin Surges

If Bitcoin hits any of these price targets, MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings could skyrocket in value. For example, if Bitcoin reaches $1 million by 2030 and MicroStrategy doubles its holdings, its Bitcoin stake could be worth an astounding $380 billion.

If Bitcoin still makes up 25% of MicroStrategy’s enterprise value, the company could reach a valuation of $1.5 trillion—offering investors a potential 50x return from its current value.

Could MicroStrategy Cause a Market Crash?

However, not everyone is optimistic about this strategy. Many analysts worry that MicroStrategy’s huge Bitcoin holdings could lead to a liquidity crisis if the company decides to sell a significant portion of its Bitcoin. Such a sale could flood the market, causing Bitcoin’s price to drop sharply.

MicroStrategy’s goal of 1 million BTC seems possible if the company continues its current pace of accumulation for another four years. However, the potential risks of holding such a large amount of Bitcoin could have a big impact on the company’s long-term outlook.

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