Is Bitcoin’s Bull Market Over? Was $74k The BTC Price Top?

Ash Crypto’s recent X post analysis challenges the previous belief that Bitcoin’s peak was $74,000, providing a detailed argument rooted in both on-chain indicators and historical price movements. By examining key metrics like the MVRV Z-Score, NUPL, and Pi Cycle Top, Ash Crypto suggests that the current correction in Bitcoin’s price is within normalcy during a bull market, rather than indicative of a definitive market top.

Dispelling Bitcoin’s Top Myths

Drawing comparisons to previous market cycles, particularly the significant price drops of 50% and 40% during the peaks of 2017 and 2021 respectively, analyst underscores the relatively modest 16% decline experienced by Bitcoin over 45 days following the $74,000 milestone. This contrast suggests that the current downturn may represent a mid-cycle correction rather than the culmination of the bull run.

Furthermore, the analyst highlights Bitcoin’s resilience in the face of various negative events, commonly referred to as FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt). Despite concerns such as Mt. Gox selling, FBI warnings, and geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin has maintained its position above $60,000, indicating underlying strength and bullish sentiment in the market.

Anticipating Positive Catalysts

Looking ahead, Ash Crypto anticipates further positive developments that could drive Bitcoin’s price higher, such as the commencement of trading for Hong Kong Spot ETFs and the potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs by the Australian Securities Exchange in 2024. Factors like the FASB rule and anticipated rate cuts in 2024 are expected to impact Bitcoin’s price trajectory positively.

Finally, he concludes on a note saying that buyers shouldn’t overreact to short-term price changes. Instead, they should use the current correction to their advantage and gradually build up their favorite cryptocurrencies. This is called dollar-cost averaging (DCA). This way of thinking fits with the bigger idea that Bitcoin’s trip is far from over and that the market may be able to go up even more. 

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