The quantum computing threat to Bitcoin has been a hot topic recently.
A fresh report from CoinShares finally puts real numbers behind the debate, and the actual risk is much smaller than the headlines suggest.
CoinShares confirms that quantum algorithms like Shor’s could, in theory, expose private keys from Bitcoin’s ECDSA signature system. But the computing power needed to pull that off does not exist yet and is not coming anytime soon.
Breaking Bitcoin’s secp256k1 curve within one day would need around 13 million physical qubits. For context, Google’s Willow chip currently operates on just 105.
Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet told CoinShares, “To break current asymmetric cryptography, one would need something in the order of millions of qubits. And as soon as you add one more qubit, it becomes exponentially more difficult to maintain the coherence system.”
Around 1.6 million BTC sits in older P2PK addresses where public keys are visible. But only about 10,200 BTC could realistically cause market disruption if stolen quickly.
The rest is spread across 32,607 separate addresses holding around 50 BTC each. According to CoinShares, cracking those would take millennia, even with the most aggressive quantum progress imaginable.
Modern Bitcoin address formats like P2PKH and P2SH keep public keys hidden behind hashes, which means the vast majority of the supply stays protected.
The report urges caution. Rushing into hard forks or unproven quantum-resistant address formats could introduce bugs, burn developer resources, and chip away at Bitcoin’s core values of immutability and property rights.
Cryptographer Dr. Adam Back offered a calmer take: “Bitcoin can adopt post-quantum signatures. Schnorr signatures paved the way for more upgrades, and Bitcoin can continue evolving defensively.”
CoinShares puts the timeline for cryptographically relevant quantum computers at the 2030s or later. Holders with funds in vulnerable legacy addresses have plenty of time to move them.
The quantum threat is real on paper, but the data says Bitcoin has time on its side.
In theory yes, but in practice no. Breaking Bitcoin would require millions of stable qubits, far beyond today’s quantum capabilities.
Only about 10,200 BTC could cause market impact if stolen. Most Bitcoin uses modern address types that remain well protected.
Not urgently. Experts agree Bitcoin has time and can upgrade carefully later, avoiding rushed changes that could harm the network.
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