Lark Davis breaks down Bitcoin’s potential for another major rally, drawing lessons from past bull markets and examining current developments. By comparing Bitcoin’s explosive breakouts in 2016 and 2020, Davis highlights a consistent pattern: after breaking previous highs, Bitcoin tends to see rapid gains followed by significant corrections.
If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could be poised for another rally—though it may face some predictable challenges along the way.
Davis begins by reviewing Bitcoin’s performance in 2016 and 2020. In 2017, Bitcoin surged 154% in just eight weeks, and in 2020, it climbed 115% in four weeks. Both times, the rallies were followed by corrections of around 30-40%. Davis suggests that these patterns could provide valuable insight into what’s coming as Bitcoin continues its upward trend in 2024.
What’s Driving This Bull Run?
A major factor driving Bitcoin’s rise is the recent influx of institutional investment. Davis points out that Wall Street firms have been purchasing Bitcoin in massive amounts. In fact, $1 billion worth of Bitcoin was bought in a single day, absorbing an entire month’s worth of Bitcoin mining production.
This unprecedented demand, Davis explains, is creating a “supply crisis” that could push Bitcoin’s price higher than many expect.
Looking at past bull markets, Davis predicts that Bitcoin could potentially reach $150,000 if it follows similar patterns and doubles from its current price. However, he also cautions that major pullbacks, like those seen in previous cycles, are to be expected. He even entertains the possibility that Bitcoin could hit $200,000, though he acknowledges that various factors could impact this outcome.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt also sees a bright future for Bitcoin, suggesting it could eventually reach $200,000 and even become a global standard of value, making other assets seem more volatile by comparison. However, Brandt stresses that corrections will always be a part of Bitcoin’s journey.
Interestingly, Davis warns that overly bullish events, like a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve announcement, could ironically trigger a market peak or “top signal.” Such events may encourage large holders to cash out, causing a market cooldown.
Notably, Bitcoin has majorly surged due to Donald Trump’s victory and pro-crypto leaders in the U.S., alongside favorable global economic shifts from U.S. Fed rate cuts. Institutional investors are heavily backing Bitcoin, with short-term holders also accumulating aggressively. Recent data shows U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $7.9 billion in net cash flow in just the past four weeks.
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