Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss spent over a decade building Gemini into one of crypto’s most recognized exchanges. That reputation is now unraveling at speed.
According to Bloomberg, Gemini is cutting well beyond its announced 25% workforce reduction, letting go of additional US staff in recent days. The company has exited the UK, EU, and Australia entirely. GEMI stock, which peaked at $45.89 after its September 2025 IPO, now trades near $5.82, with market cap cratering from nearly $4 billion to under $700 million.
On February 17, Gemini parted ways with COO Marshall Beard, CFO Dan Chen, and CLO Tyler Meade, all in a single day. The executive who led Gemini’s prediction markets platform also departed the same month the product launched.
Cameron Winklevoss is now absorbing the COO role. No replacement is planned.
Truist Securities analysts wrote that “Gemini’s management team placed a big bet on the crypto bull market run continuing through 2027 and instead crypto asset prices have cratered.”
“Their strategy needs to change,” analyst Matthew Coad added.
Expenses rose roughly 70% last year while net revenue grew just 17%. Gemini handled only 0.1% of global spot crypto trading in January, down from 0.6% in June, according to Cantor Fitzgerald.
Facing evaporating revenue, the twins are betting on a new direction. Gemini launched its CFTC-licensed prediction markets platform in December, processing over $24 million in volume from more than 10,000 users.
“Our thesis is that prediction markets will be as big or bigger than today’s capital markets,” the brothers wrote in a recent post.
But the space is crowded. Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, and Robinhood are all pushing into the same market.
Gemini’s $425 million IPO haul provides a financial cushion. But with projected expenses of up to $530 million against net revenue of up to $175 million, the burn rate is steep.
“I just think when you see such a slowdown in user growth coinciding with that level of cash burn, investors are going to worry about solvency issues,” Coad said.
Gemini’s next earnings report, expected March 30, could decide whether the market treats this as a turnaround or a warning sign.
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