Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), the former CEO of the now-defunct crypto exchange FTX, is at the center of growing speculation about whether he could receive a presidential pardon. With SBF facing a long prison sentence for his role in the collapse of FTX, rumors began to swirl after billionaire Elon Musk stated that he would be “shocked if this doesn’t happen.”
Musk’s comments have sparked fresh discussions about a potential pardon, raising questions about the role of politics in SBF’s future.
Failed crypto exchange FTX, whose empire collapsed in November 2022, was convicted on all seven charges after a five-week trial that concluded in November 2023.
As a result, SBF was sentenced to 25 years in prison, though the U.S. government had requested a sentence between 40 and 50 years. His legal team had argued for a much shorter sentence of just six years.
Despite the conviction, the idea of a pardon has gained traction. SBF’s strong connections to the Democratic Party, where he was one of the largest donors, have led some to believe that his political ties could lead to a reduced sentence or even a full pardon.
In addition, the upcoming FTX bankruptcy proceedings, set to begin in January 2025, have fueled the idea that pardoning SBF could help the country move on from the scandal.
The speculation reached a new level after Elon Musk’s comments on X, formerly Twitter. Musk posted that he would be “shocked if this doesn’t happen,” further stoking the rumors of a potential pardon.
His remark, while not a prediction, added weight to the ongoing discussions.
A Pardon? Not So Fast
However, the chances of President Joe Biden granting a pardon to SBF appear slim. According to Polymarket, a prediction market platform, the probability of a pardon is just 16%. This low number reflects the general skepticism in the market, indicating that most believe a pardon is unlikely.
While the chances of a pardon may seem remote, recent political events offer some context. President Joe Biden has granted pardons before, including two for his son, Hunter Biden, who faced legal challenges of his own. These actions have sparked controversy and raised questions about the political influence behind such decisions.
Some have also pointed to the fact that six charges against SBF were dropped, which could be seen as another sign that he might receive leniency due to his political connections.
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