Fed Minutes July 8: Will the FOMC Signal a Rate Cut or Another Hike?

Published by

Rizwan Ansari

July 6, 2026

Scissors cutting a rising yellow arrow in front of the Federal Reserve building.

The U.S. Federal Reserve will release its June 16–17 FOMC meeting minutes on July 8, an event that could decide the next direction of U.S. interest rates. After keeping rates at 3.50%–3.75% last month, investors are now watching whether the minutes signal another rate hike before the end of 2026.

Any bullish news could also boost Bitcoin and the broader crypto market in the coming weeks.

June FOMC Minutes

Taking a view from the June meeting, the Fed, under its new Chairman, Kevin Warsh, unanimously kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%.

However, the overall tone of the meeting was more hawkish than many investors expected. The Fed removed earlier hints that rate cuts could come soon and instead shifted its focus toward bringing inflation back under control.

Since taking office, Warsh has repeatedly said that the Fed will remain committed to its 2% inflation target, even if markets expect easier monetary policy.

Recently, speaking at the European Central Bank’s policy forum, Warsh said that

“If anyone expects the Fed to become comfortable with inflation above 2%, they’ll be disappointed.”

Will There Be Any Rate Hike This Year?

The Fed’s latest projections also showed a divided committee, with 9 out of 19 policymakers expecting at least one more rate hike before the end of 2026.

Perhaps, as per the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently see around a 76% chance that rates will remain unchanged at the next meeting.

However, by December 2026, traders are assigning roughly a 40% probability that rates could increase to 3.75%–4.00%.

Bitcoin Price Rises As Rate Fears Ease

Bitcoin has recovered from last week’s decline, crashing below $57K, and is now trading close to $63,000, as immediate fears of another rate hike have eased.

The latest weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data and signs of moderating inflation have also improved market sentiment.

Still, the July 8 FOMC minutes could become the next major catalyst.

If the report shows that most Fed officials still support another rate hike, risk assets like Bitcoin could see some volatility.

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