Fact Check: Is XRP Price Set for a 600% Rally in Wave 3?

A viral XRP analysis done by crypto analyst and XRP enthusiast XRPunkie hints at the possibility of XRP price recreating its 600% rally. Which is a part of a meteoric Wave 3 Elliot structure. The thesis highlights that the altcoin could zoom past its highs to target the $13-$15 range.

This theory has gained the attention of the community, amidst the recent bullish developments. Seems to good to be true? Is this prediction backed by facts, or speculation driven by hopes?

CoinPedia decode the claim.

Claim	XRP will rally 600% in Wave 3 to hit $13–$15
Verdict	No Guarantee
Fact-Check by	CoinPedia

Also Read : Is XRP Price Heading for a Crash?

Who Made This Claim?

The theory is shared by XRPunkie, describing a chart projecting a 600% surge for XRP in the next bullish wave. The post as seen above highlights an Elliott Wave count suggesting XRP could mirror its previous +600% rally which was seen between Nov 2024 and Jan 2025. To reach its new all-time high between $13 and $15 in Wave III.

Coinpedia’s Key Findings and Counter-Evidence

1. Elliott Wave Is Pattern-Based, Not an Evidence of Proof?

The Elliott Wave framework is widely acknowledged but also subjective. While Wave 3 is generally the strongest, successful execution depends on the correct wave count and ideal market conditions. Many analysts debate XRP’s current wave positioning.

2. XRP Faces Roadblock Near $2.35

Technical indicators show that XRP is testing resistance near $2.35, with the Bollinger Band upper bound and RSI at 56.73, nearing its overbought territory. We believe that this short-term upside may be limited unless backed by a high-volume breakout.

3. Market Conditions Turn Back for Altcoin Explosions

• BTC dominance stands at 64.5%, overshadowing altcoin growth.
  
• Altcoin season index is only 25/100, showing weak alt momentum.
  
• The Fear & Greed index is neutral at 50, lacking emotional sentiments that often trigger large rallies.
  

4. On-Chain Metrics Improving, But Far from a Bull Drive

Active addresses on the 90 day time frame and exchange outflows show a modest uptick, suggesting accumulation but not a full-blown demand surge. Volume rose 76.73% in 24 hours, which is positive but not unprecedented.

Also Read : Ripple Price Prediction After XRP ETF Approval

5. Fundamentals Are Strong, But Not Enough Alone

• XRP Ledger just launched its EVM-compatible sidechain, boosting DeFi prospects.
• Ripple secured an RLUSD collateral deal and received SEC approval for Grayscale’s XRP ETF, both bullish milestones.
• The Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit could soon reach a resolution.
• Yet, the price remains modest at $2.26, up just 1.92% in 7 days, indicating skepticism in market reaction.

Summary Table: Claim vs Coinpedia’s Evidence

Claim Made by Theory	Coinpedia’s Counter-Evidence
XRP surged 600% in 73 days before, so it can again	Past performance ≠ future results, depends on the cycle context
Wave 3 will drive XRP to $13–$15	Fibonacci levels are projections, not price guarantees
Strong fundamentals will ignite Wave 3	Fundamentals help, but don’t guarantee price spikes
Breakout from consolidation is bullish	Breakouts need volume + momentum to sustain big moves
The market is ready for an altcoin wave	BTC dominance is high, altcoin season is not confirmed yet

Conclusion

The theory that XRP could hit $13–$15 based on Wave 3 projections is plausible but highly speculative. While XRP’s strong fundamentals, recent ETF approval, and sidechain launch support bullish sentiment, technical and macro factors do not yet confirm the conditions needed for a 600% rally.

We would suggest investors to watch for a breakout above $2.50 with rising volume and signs of altcoin dominance before considering this theory for purchases.