Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Shows Signs of Potential Shift In Narrative; $100k Soon?

Can Bitcoin make it? Can Bitcoin reclaim the $60k level as a strong support? We’ve been witnessing downward wicks over the past few weeks, including last week, but now we’re seeing solid candle formations, as reported by several analysts. 

Current Price Movements and Resistance Levels

Analyst and investor Davinci Jeremie said that for 14 years, Bitcoin’s four-year pattern had remained unchanged until March 2024, when the price began showing signs of deviation. He noted that a similar instance occurred in November 2022, when Bitcoin broke below its previous all-time high, marking a significant shift. Despite this, Bitcoin saw a run-up to new all-time highs in February and March, just before the halving event.

Looking ahead to 2025, he remains cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin, suggesting a potential maximum price around $100K. He said  that market manipulation could impact price movements, pointing to issues such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) adjustments and geopolitical tensions affecting sentiment.

Comparing Historical Retracement Cycles

However, analyst Rekt Capital wrote, “Not only is Bitcoin rejecting from the Daily resistance of $58350 (black) but a new Lower High (orange) may also be developing. This is not conclusive but if Bitcoin wants to rally to $60600 (blue) going into the weekend. Bitcoin will need to Daily Close above the black resistance to invalidate the early-stage Lower High and set price up for that rally to $60600.”

Previously, Rekt Capital had said that in January 2023, we saw the deepest retracement in that cycle at 23%. A year later, it took that long to surpass that retracement record, hitting 23.8%. Now, just two and a half months later, we’re breaking that record again with the current cycle’s deepest retracement at 25.6%. 

Currently, we’re at 46 days, indicating this retracement is also lasting longer than usual. Considering historical data, while some retracements have been as short as 3 weeks and others as long as 63 days, our current retracement is gradually becoming one of the longer ones observed.

Also Read: Crypto Market Analysis: Is the Bear Market Nearing Its End?