Bitcoin in 2024: Strong Year, But Analyst Warns of 30% January Price Drop

Bitcoin had an outstanding run in 2024, beginning the year at $42,000 and closing near $96,670—an impressive 111% gain. This followed a massive 155% rise in 2023, marking two consecutive years of remarkable performance for the leading cryptocurrency.

But could January 2025 bring a setback?

Historical Trends Suggest a Possible Dip

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has warned that Bitcoin might face a 30% drop in January based on historical patterns.

Cowen noted that Bitcoin’s 2024 performance is similar to other halving years like 2016 and 2020. In those years, Bitcoin saw strong rallies in October and November but lost momentum in December, much like what happened in 2012. This pattern often led to notable price drops in January.

In 2024, Bitcoin’s performance has already deviated slightly. It experienced a 15% decline in December, raising questions about whether the expected January correction might have already started.

Will January See a 30% Drop?

In past post-halving years like 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin’s price dropped about 30% in January. If history repeats, a similar decline this January could lower Bitcoin’s price to around $77,700, aligning with the 20-week moving average—a key level for many traders.

Some experts believe this time might be different. Since Bitcoin has already seen a notable drop in December, there’s speculation that the market may have “front-run” the usual January correction. Put simply, the expected price drop may have already occurred, potentially sparing Bitcoin from further losses this month.

Is the Correction Already Over?

Benjamin Cowen suggests that the early December decline could mean the January correction has already taken place. If that’s the case, Bitcoin might avoid a major dip this month, breaking from its historical trend.

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Bitcoin’s Bold Prediction

Looking further, some analysts are feeling optimistic about Bitcoin’s future in 2025. According to a Coinpedia report, Coinshare’s Market Head, James Butterfill, predicts Bitcoin could hit $150K in 2025. He believes the main factor driving this surge will be a positive regulatory environment in the US.

On the other hand, Pantera Capital has an even more bullish forecast, projecting Bitcoin could skyrocket to $740,000 by 2028.

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