The king continues to make headlines! Over the past year, Bitcoin has surged by an impressive 118.2%. At the start of 2024, the price hovered around $42,280, and today, it stands at $56,318, reflecting a 33.7% increase this year alone. Let’s dive into what this year’s Bitcoin price action tells us, and the possibilities that lie ahead.
Between late January and mid-March, Bitcoin saw its strongest upward momentum of the year, culminating in a peak of $73,682. After this surge, the market entered a sideways phase, with prices ranging between $71,500 and $52,000. April saw a dip of -14.75%, followed by positive growth in May and July with gains of 11.1% and 3.09%, respectively. June and August, however, brought declines of -7.02% and -8.73%.
This month, Bitcoin opened at around $57,290, but by September 6, it had dropped to a monthly low of $53,905. Over the last few days, a modest recovery lifted the price to $57,601. However, recent one-day charts suggest another downward trend is looming, with prices once again slipping.
In the past year, Bitcoin recorded an impressive gain of 155.4%. Historically, Bitcoin has only posted a negative yearly change three times—2014, 2018, and 2022—with drops of -57.6%, -73.3%, and -64.3%, respectively. The most significant yearly increase was in 2013, when Bitcoin skyrocketed by a staggering 5,435%.
Despite a stellar Q1 performance this year with a 68.7% rise, Q2 and Q3 have been disappointing, with losses of -12% and -10.3%. Historically, Q3 has often been a weak quarter for Bitcoin, only delivering positive returns four times in the past decade. However, Q4 has a more favorable track record, with six instances of positive growth in the same period.
At present, the Bitcoin RSI stands at 44.03, which indicates the market is in the over-brought region. It was on August 26 that the market slipped below the 50-level of RSI.
The 50-day SMA remains at $60,242 – far higher than the present price range. The 100-day SMA is $61,997, and 200-day SMA is $63,942.
The price also broke through the 9-day SMA on September 9, and today, the 9-day SMA stands at $56,193.13—just below the current market price of $57,601, suggesting potential instability.
As we approach the final quarter of 2024, there’s growing optimism that Bitcoin could experience a strong rally. Historically, Q4 has been favorable, and the data seems to back this expectation.
Will Bitcoin break out of its current slump and deliver the bullish momentum traders are hoping for? Only time will tell.
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