Bitcoin Price Analysis: Crossroads Ahead – Rally to $120K or $78K Dip?

Earlier this month, Bitcoin (BTC) made history, soaring above the $100k mark for the first time ever. It was a monumental moment for the cryptocurrency world, sparking excitement and speculation about the future of the 2024/2025 bull market. But as quickly as the excitement rose, it began to fade.

A shift in focus towards large and mid-cap altcoins has started to weigh on Bitcoin’s momentum.

After reaching $100k, Bitcoin has seen a sharp decline, dropping over 14% in the past two weeks. As of Monday, December 30, it was trading around $93.3k during the mid-London session. On the daily chart, Bitcoin has consistently closed below its 50-day moving average (MA), suggesting that short-term bears are in control.

Keep reading to explore the challenges and opportunities ahead for Bitcoin.

A Critical Time for Bitcoin

Veteran trader Peter Brandt noted that Bitcoin is at a crucial crossroads. He believes the next move could either lead to a rally toward $120k or a correction toward support around $78k. From a bearish perspective, Brandt sees the potential for a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern on the daily chart, which could signal further downside risk.

On the other hand, Brandt pointed out that Bitcoin might be forming a bullish pattern known as the Hump Slump Bump Dump Pump (HSBDP).

This pattern historically signals a strong rebound, leaving room for a possible bullish reversal, even amid the current uncertainty.

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Institutional Investors Keep Buying Bitcoin

Despite the short-term bearish outlook, institutional investors are still buying up Bitcoin. Led by major players like BlackRock’s IBIT and MicroStrategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR), these institutions have been steadily increasing their holdings.

On-chain data from Coinglass shows that the supply of Bitcoin on centralized exchanges has dropped to a multi-year low of around 2.24 million coins, reflecting a growing scarcity of Bitcoin available for sale.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs See Strong Inflows

The US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract significant institutional interest. These ETFs have seen a total net inflow of about $35.6 billion, bringing their total assets to around $106.6 billion. However, Bitcoin’s Futures Open Interest (OI) market has declined by over $7 billion in recent weeks, now hovering around $59 billion.

This drop suggests growing concerns about a potential midterm selloff as traders look to protect their positions.

Whether it rallies toward $120k or faces further correction, institutional support remains strong, and the long-term outlook for Bitcoin is still debated among experts.

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