Bitcoin is ending the year down nearly 10%, leaving many investors puzzled. 2025 was expected to be a big year for Bitcoin, with new milestones like spot Bitcoin ETFs, more interest from big institutions, and increased political attention.
Despite this, the price hasn’t kept up, creating fear in the market. But Michael Saylor, co-founder of MicroStrategy and long-time Bitcoin supporter, says the market might be reading it wrong. He believes 2025 isn’t a failure, it’s just setting the stage for what comes next.
Speaking recently on Alex Thorn’s podcast, Saylor said that the past 12 months may have been the most important period in Bitcoin’s history from a fundamentals perspective.
“The last 12 months have probably been the best 12 months in the history of the industry in terms of fundamentals. It’s profound what’s happened since December,” Saylor said.
He pointed out that, while institutions like BlackRock and public companies get most of the attention, roughly 85% of Bitcoin remains in the hands of early holders whose identities are largely unknown. Meanwhile, derivatives markets, particularly leveraged perpetual contracts, are playing a major role in short-term price movements.
According to Saylor, this structure means Bitcoin’s price is often driven more by trader sentiment and leverage than by spot demand, even during periods of strong adoption.
Bitcoin’s sluggish performance is less about crypto-specific issues and more about broader macroeconomic conditions.
Historically, Bitcoin has performed well when economic activity is expanding above the PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) cycle critical 50 level. However, the global economy has remained in contraction territory for nearly three years.
As analyst Nico noted in a recent discussion:
“Bitcoin is a liquidity thermometer. Easy money, it goes up. Tight money, it goes down.”
This suggests Bitcoin’s muted price action may reflect tight liquidity conditions rather than weakening fundamentals.
Adding to the bullish case, Saylor revealed new insights about institutional participation expected next year:
“We’re hearing rumors that major U.S. banks will start to buy Bitcoin, custody Bitcoin, and issue credit against the native Bitcoin asset in the first half of 2026.”
This comes after meetings between MicroStrategy’s CEO and executives from BNY Mellon, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and other banks, who are exploring ways to manage Bitcoin for clients before offering loans or investment products.
MicroStrategy currently holds 671,268 BTC, worth billions, leading a wave of public company Bitcoin ownership. Altogether, public companies now hold over 1 million BTC, showing growing interest from institutions and clearer regulations.
Saylor suggests that this wave of adoption could support Bitcoin prices in 2026, ranging roughly from $143,000 to $170,000.
Bitcoin trades globally and reacts to broad liquidity conditions, not just crypto-specific developments. When capital is cautious, even strong adoption signals can take time to influence price.
Short-term traders face higher volatility due to leverage-driven price swings, while long-term holders are less affected. Institutions tend to move slowly, prioritizing custody and compliance first.
If banks offer custody or lending tied to Bitcoin, access could become simpler and more regulated. This may attract cautious investors who previously avoided crypto markets.
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