Bitcoin Down 50% From $126K Peter Schiff Warns of $40K Crash

The debate around Bitcoin’s long-term outlook is intensifying once again. While some investors view the recent pullback as a standard cycle correction, longtime critic Peter Schiff believes something far more structural is unfolding.

Bitcoin is currently trading roughly 50% below its October 2025 high of $126,000. After failing to regain sustained upside momentum, the asset has entered a period of consolidation under key resistance levels. Volatility tied to macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical stress has further pressured risk assets across the board.

But Schiff’s warning goes beyond charts and technical levels.

The “Bubble Market” Argument

Schiff describes Bitcoin as sentiment-driven and bubble-like, arguing that the multi-year rally was fueled by speculation rather than sustainable fundamentals. In his view, the recent downturn signals that “the air is coming out” of an overextended market.

He has suggested that Bitcoin could fall toward $50,000, or even $40,000, if downside momentum accelerates. Schiff also made headlines by claiming that a single Truth Social post from Donald Trump could significantly impact Bitcoin’s price, underscoring what he sees as the asset’s fragility and dependence on political sentiment.

Schiff has additionally criticized Trump’s pro-crypto stance, calling efforts to position the United States as a global crypto hub misguided and a misallocation of capital.

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Gold’s Surge and Institutional Rotation

While Bitcoin struggles, Schiff points to gold’s strong performance as evidence of a broader monetary shift. He argues that rising gold prices reflect de-dollarization trends and renewed central bank accumulation of hard assets.

Institutional flows appear to support a divergence. Hedge fund exposure to Bitcoin ETFs has declined in recent quarters, while gold-backed funds now manage significantly larger total assets. During periods of market stress, capital has increasingly rotated into traditional safe havens.

Two Competing Narratives

Bitcoin supporters maintain that volatility is a normal part of long-term adoption cycles. They argue that network fundamentals and institutional infrastructure remain intact despite the correction.

For now, Bitcoin stands between two sharply contrasting views. One sees a fragile bubble vulnerable to sentiment shocks, even political ones. The other sees a maturing asset navigating another cyclical downturn.

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