Two things are happening in the Bitcoin market right now that most people aren’t connecting. One is visible on price charts. The other is buried in on-chain data, and it tells a different story.
Bitcoin is in pain. Long-term holders are now spending coins at a loss. That’s a pattern that has appeared at the same point in every previous bear market. And it’s happening while the number of Bitcoin addresses sending coins to exchanges has fallen to a 10-year low.
The LTH SOPR – a metric tracking whether long-term holders are realising profits or losses when they spend – currently sits at 0.96 on its 30-day moving average. Any reading below 1.0 means long-term holders are spending at a loss. The yearly average is still positive at 1.71, but that reflects historical data, not what’s happening now.
The pattern behind this matters.
Short-term holders have been under stress for six months. Now that pressure is shifting to long-term holders – the most patient, most experienced participants in the market. Historically, this transition marks the final phase before a cycle turns.
“When LTHs begin to realise sustained losses, it becomes a signal worth monitoring for long-term accumulation,” noted CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, who flagged the data today.
His caveat is important: it can go lower, and it can last several more months.
Simultaneously, Bitcoin exchange depositing addresses have fallen to their lowest level in a decade, according to CryptoQuant data. The number of addresses actively sending Bitcoin to exchanges – a direct measure of selling intent – has collapsed to levels last seen around 2016.
Total exchange reserves stand at 2.706 million BTC as of April 8, with negative netflows recorded every month since February. Nobody is queuing up to sell.
“This is the most dangerous market to be short in right now,” analyst CryptoTice wrote. “Supply drying up. ETF inflows returning. Long term holders refusing to move. When demand meets a market with nothing left to sell – the move is never gradual.”
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What makes this moment notable is not that either signal exists in isolation.
Bear markets routinely produce both stressed holders and declining exchange activity. What is unusual is the degree to which both are present simultaneously, and how precisely the configuration mirrors the late-stage patterns of 2018 and 2022 – both of which preceded sharp recoveries.
History does not guarantee repetition, but markets rarely offer clean setups, and this one is tracing a familiar shape.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $72,212, up 7.82% on the week.
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