Who’s Actually Making Money in Bitcoin Right Now? STH vs LTH Data

$276 million was wiped from crypto traders in a single day this week as Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $69,000, squeezing leveraged traders on both sides. As of now, Bitcoin sits at $68,274 – down over 2% in 24 hours and 45% below its all-time high.

If you’re watching your portfolio bleed, you’re probably asking one question: who on earth is making money right now?

The answer might surprise you.

Who’s Losing Money in the Bitcoin Crash Right Now

The most visible losers right now are leveraged traders on both sides. On April 6, as Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $69,000, 80,202 traders were liquidated across crypto derivatives markets in 24 hours – $276 million wiped out, with short sellers bearing the brunt as bearish bets got squeezed out.

Then there’s the broader group quietly suffering: short-term holders – investors who bought Bitcoin less than six months ago. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, their average cost basis sits at $85,400, well above Bitcoin’s current price. That means they’re sitting on average unrealized losses of roughly 19.4%.

Some are holding. Many are panic selling.

Bitcoin LTH Supply Up 300,000 BTC: Who Is Actually Buying

Here’s what the panic headlines aren’t covering.

Long-term holder supply has increased by approximately 300,000 BTC. That means coins are actively moving from stressed, short-term hands into patient, long-term ones. The people who lived through previous cycles aren’t watching the Iran news and selling. They’re accumulating.

Analyst Joao Wedson’s 720-day Tactical Bull-Bear Sentiment Index tells the same story from a completely different angle. The indicator is currently sitting in extreme bearish territory – a zone that historically, in his words, is “not where trends start collapsing, but where they tend to end.”

He puts it well: “This could be the final ~5 months of fear and disinterest in Bitcoin. But also 5 months of accumulation by OGs.”

Buy, Sell or Hold Your Bitcoin?

That’s not a question this article will answer for you, and anyone who answers it with certainty is lying.

What the data does show is a familiar pattern. Darkfost notes that historically, when short-term holder losses exceed 25%, those levels have often coincided with early market bottoms. At 19.4%, we’re not there yet but the direction is clear.

Every Bitcoin cycle has the same cast. Reactive traders lose to the volatility. Patient accumulators absorb the supply. The Iran war accelerated the one dynamic that was already playing out.

Bitcoin is at $68,274. The fear is real. The question is which side of this trade you’re on.