Benjamin Cowen’s Memo Suggests Bitcoin Could Bottom Under $45K in Q4

The latest Bitcoin market memo from Benjamin Cowen isn’t exactly what eager bulls wanted to hear. While the recent recovery above the 200-week SMA had offered some relief, the report says that this move doesn’t necessarily mean that it is an end of broader correction.

Instead, it points toward a potential fourth quarter bottoming window, with the possibility of Bitcoin falling under $45K region before the next major cycle begins.

Why Benjamin Cowen Suggests the 200-Week SMA Still Matters

Per the memo, BTC/USD briefly slipped below 200-week SMA during its early-summer decline near $57K during reclaiming the level during a rebound to approx $65.3K.

However, the report notes that a similar break-and-reclaim pattern also appeared in 2022, well before that cycle eventually reached its final low.

That said, the memo also highlights that the closely followed 2019 cycle comparison has now exceeded its expected timing without delivering the sharp capitulation seen previously. Rather than a dramatic collapse, the analysis suggests the current reset may be unfolding through time instead of price alone.

BTC Onchain Signal Remains Mixed

Several on-chain indicators continue supporting a cautious stance. The report notes the risk readings have entered historically attractive accumulation zones, while the percentage of supply in profit and loss crossed during early-summer decline, a condition previously associated with historical bottoming periods.

Even so, the benjamin cowen benjamin cowen at Cryptoverse Benjamin Cowen is a researcher, financial analyst, YouTuber, and the founder of the "Into the Cryptoverse" analytics website and community in the United States. "Into the Cryptoverse" includes, among other things, subscription-based crypto market reporting, price research, and risk analysis. He had 720,000 subscribers and over 71 million cumulative video views as of this writing. His YouTube videos include trend analysis and price predictions, but he also occasionally posts video introductions to several cryptocurrencies. He delivers the paid "Into the Cryptoverse" reports in addition to freely available analysis videos on YouTube (the Premium List). Members receive weekly reports that include, among other things, video updates on the state of crypto, risk analysis data, logarithmic regression analysis, price analysis, and thorough weekly reports. Details: Organization: Into the Cryptoverse Location: United States Education: Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in Nuclear Engineering from the University of New Mexico School of Engineering and Master of Science (M.S.) in nuclear Engineering from the University of New Mexico School of Engineering Skills: Teaching and C++ Experience: Chief Executive Officer at Into The Cryptoverse from Jan 2020 - Present  Senior Member Of Technical Staff at Sandia National Laboratories from Sep 2020 - Jan 2021 Postdoctoral Researcher at Sandia National Laboratories from Sep 2018 - Sep 2020  Research Assistant at The University of New Mexico from Jun 2013 - Sep 2018 Research Assistant at North Carolina State University from Aug 2011 - Dec 2012 Teaching assistant at North Carolina State University from Aug 2011 to May 2012. NASA, Office of Inspector General at NASA Undergraduate Research Assistant from Jan 2011 - Apr 2011 FAQ's 1. What makes Benjamin Cowen's risk analysis different? Benjamin Cowen uses a proprietary risk metric that matches the risk associated with various cryptocurrencies at any time, and his approach encourages users to tailor their investment strategies according to their individual risk tolerance. 2. How does Benjamin Cowen determine the fair value of a coin? Benjamin Cowen determines through a combination of analytical techniques, focusing on market cycles     EntrepreneurChief Executive OfficerMarket Analyst ‘s memo argues the retest isn’t simple and can’t be confirmed as complete yet. The MVRV Z-score has bounced instead of moving below zero, price approached realized price near $53K without testing it, and market breadth has continued weakening despite recent recovery. It also points out that ETF holdings, which previously absorbed significant supply, have begun rolling over.

Macro Calendar Still Keeping Bears Interested

The broader macro backdrop also remains part of the bearish framework outlined in the report. The memo clearly notes that 2026 is a U.S. midterm election year, historically the weakest phase of the four year market cycle.

Previous midterm years often experienced summer rallies followed by weaker August and September performance before establishing cycle lows during the Q4.

Beyond seasonality, the report cites cooling inflation due to the earlier oil price weakness, renewed geopolitical risks around the Strait of Hormuz, and the Federal Reserve that has shifted away from an easing bias, while maintaining elevated real interest rates.

For now, the Benjamin Cowen’s memo keeps Bitcoin in what it describes as a “bottom-watch” phase rather than a confirmed recovery. According to the analysis, a sustained weekly reclaim above the 50-week SMA near $86.5K would weaken the bearish outlook, while patience remains the preferred approach until stronger confirmation emerges.

• BTC$ 64,508.44(0.76%)