Analysts Say Cardano’s Current Market Boredom Could Lead to a Supply Shock

A fresh wave of on-chain analysis is bringing back the long-running “supply shock” discussion around Cardano, as whale wallets continue quietly accumulating ADA while retail traders lose patience with the slow price action.

According to data shared by Santiment, wallets holding at least one million ADA now control roughly 25.09 billion tokens, or about 67.47% of the circulating supply. A Cheeky Crypto Unfiltered analyst says this is the highest whale concentration seen on the network since 2020.

Retail Gives Up While Whales Keep Adding

The analyst described Cardano’s current market structure as a “psychological accumulation trap.” ADA has spent months trading sideways while much of the broader crypto market recovered, leaving many retail investors frustrated.

At around $0.25, ADA is still nearly 89% below its all-time high. While other major assets staged stronger rebounds, Cardano remained stuck in a slow grind lower, creating deep exhaustion among smaller traders.

But according to the analysis, that boredom may actually be helping large holders accumulate more supply quietly behind the scenes. Between late 2025 and early 2026 alone, whale wallets reportedly absorbed another 454.7 million ADA.

The analyst also pointed to a major exchange outflow where nearly 67.9 million ADA was reportedly withdrawn from Coinbase into private wallets within just a few weeks, reducing the amount of liquid ADA available on exchanges.

Staking Is Making Supply Even Tighter

Another big part of the supply shock thesis is Cardano’s staking system.

The network currently has nearly 58% of its circulating supply, roughly 21 billion ADA, actively staked across pools. Unlike many competing proof-of-stake networks, Cardano allows users to stake without lockup periods or slashing risks, making staking easier and more attractive for long-term holders.

The analyst argues that when heavy whale accumulation combines with massive staking participation, the tradable supply on exchanges becomes increasingly thin.

Institutional Interest Keeps Growing

Moreover, speculation around a future ADA ETF continues building after CME Cardano futures launched. Firms including VanEck, Bitwise Asset Management, 21Shares, and Grayscale Investments have all been linked to ADA-related investment products.

According to Coinpedia’s Cardano Price Prediction 2026 ADA Price could enter a strong recovery phase in 2026 if it breaks the key $0.45–$0.60 resistance zone, with potential upside targets between $1.20 and $2.20 as market sentiment and ecosystem growth improve.

The analyst believes that if institutional demand eventually returns while liquid supply remains heavily restricted, Cardano could face a strong supply-driven move later in the cycle.