Elon Musk believes SpaceX could reach a $100 trillion valuation within the next decade, far above billionaire investor Ron Baron’s estimate of $20 trillion to $50 trillion. However, Musk sees one major threat to that goal, a world war.
Baron also expects Starlink alone to reach a $15 trillion valuation as satellite internet and space-based data centers drive future growth.
Speaking at the Columbia Business School Distinguished Speaker Series, Baron Capital CEO Ron Baron said SpaceX could become one of the world’s most valuable companies over the next 10 years.
“I think SpaceX stock is going to be thousands of dollars a share. I think its market cap will be worth $20 trillion, $30 trillion, $50 trillion.”
He added that Musk believes his estimate is “way low.”
Responding to Baron’s prediction, Musk said, “Unless there is a major world war, SpaceX probably gets to >$100T in <10 years.”
Despite the long-term forecast, SpaceX (SPCX) stock was trading near $152, down 2.8%, while the market cap is valued at around $2 trillion.
Baron believes Starlink could become a major driver of SpaceX’s future value. He expects Starlink alone to reach a valuation of $14 trillion to $15 trillion over the next decade.
His projections point to a major expansion in users and revenue.
Baron Capital’s modeling suggests Starlink could eventually serve more than 300 million customers globally and generate $1 trillion in annual revenue, with projected annual net profits of $700 billion to $800 billion.
Starlink’s newer V3 satellites are also expected to improve network capacity. To put their potential speed at 1 terabit per second per satellite, around 10 times the capacity of earlier V2-mini models.
Baron also sees orbital data centers as another major growth opportunity. Building data centers on Earth can face challenges involving land, permits, electricity, and cooling.
Meanwhile, in space, solar power could help supply energy without the same ground based constraints. He estimates power costs could be around $2 per watt in space, compared with more than $10 on Earth
On top of it, reusable Starship flights could cut launch costs from $1,500 to $150 per kilogram, making it cheaper to move equipment into orbit.
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