Altcoins Poised for Recovery Soon: Supercycle or Short-Term Rally?

Over the last few months, altcoins have shown some steady progress despite the choppy market trends. After cashing out in March, a move that locked in major profits, the market experienced a series of losses. However, according to analyst Nicholas Merten the trend has shifted since August and September. 

He said that the market cap of altcoins has spiked from around $152 billion to nearly $170 billion, setting higher lows, which is an important indicator of an uptrend. 

Altcoins are also beginning to test long-term moving averages. A weekly close above the 100-day moving average, which has been a tough barrier, could hint at a stronger move toward the 200-day range. If altcoins can break through this, it would signal a promising entry point into the market, at a discount from previous highs. 

But Are Altcoins Performing Better Than Bitcoin?

A point of concern is how altcoins perform compared to Bitcoin. While some may celebrate a 20% gain in altcoins, the analyst said that it’s important to measure those returns against Bitcoin’s performance. For example, Bitcoin could have gained 30-40% in the same period, so altcoins must outperform Bitcoin to justify holding them. 

Interestingly, the altcoin/Bitcoin ratio has returned to its June lows, which could signal a favorable range for accumulation. Historically, this range has provided good opportunities for accumulation, particularly when compared to previous highs in December 2023 and March 2024.

Popular Altcoins Look Defeated

Ethereum and Solana, two of the most popular altcoins, show signs of weakness. Ethereum is still struggling with its ETF launch, and its price has dropped to capitulation lows seen in early August.

A recovery could happen, but for now, it remains in a downward trend. Similarly, Solana, which performed well throughout 2023 and 2024, is showing bearish signals, spending too much time around the 200-day moving average, which suggests a lack of momentum. The analyst warned that while Bitcoin may reach new all-time highs, these altcoins are likely to face headwinds, especially with insider pressures affecting their price movements. 

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