Altcoins in “End Stage” Bear Market? Analyst Michaël van de Poppe Turns Bullish

Altcoin sentiment remains under pressure, and the data backs it. The CMC Altcoin Season Index is currently sitting at 37/100, firmly in Bitcoin season. Just a week ago, it was 34, and a month ago, 53, showing how momentum has faded. Compared to its yearly high of 78, the market is clearly far from an altcoin-driven phase, with most tokens still lagging Bitcoin.

But according to Michaël van de Poppe, this is exactly the kind of setup where reversals begin, and he’s leaning strongly bullish on altcoins from here.

“This Is the End Stage, Not the Beginning”

He says that 2025 has already acted as the bear market for altcoins. “The markets are approaching the end stage of the bear market… not the start,” he said, noting that most altcoins are down more than 90%.

While that drop makes sense after inflated valuations, he now sees the opposite problem. “Markets are currently underpricing the upside of altcoins massively,” he said, signaling his bullish stance on altcoins specifically at current levels.

On Bitcoin, he’s more neutral-to-bullish, suggesting the downside is likely done. 

“The bear market of BTC rarely goes deeper… we’ve already hit that,” he added, implying Bitcoin has likely bottomed and won’t see major further downside.

Macro and Sentiment Starting to Align

He also pointed to macro shifts. Lower volatility in gold and oil typically supports risk assets, while equities lead the move. “Nasdaq vol up → more confidence → BTC to follow → altcoins to follow,” he explained.

Sentiment is another key factor. “The altcoin sentiment has seen the lowest read… nobody is interested,” he said, calling this a classic accumulation phase rather than a warning sign.

Why Altcoins Didn’t Run Earlier

Meanwhile, Benjamin Cowen provides a bigger outlook on why altcoins struggled in the first place. He argues the cycle lacked a proper altcoin season because Bitcoin topped without hype. Historically, in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin topped with strong retail hype, which he calls “euphoria.” That excitement pushed profits into altcoins, triggering explosive alt seasons.

Without retail excitement, capital never rotated into altcoins. “When you top on apathy… there’s just no one left to sell the altcoins to,” he added, pointing to tight liquidity and a risk-off macro backdrop.

What Comes Next

Van de Poppe notes the setup is now changing. Bitcoin has likely bottomed, and altcoins could follow with stronger moves after a short lag.

“Bitcoin has bottomed… altcoins are violently following… the right time to accumulate is now.”

In short, the data explains why altcoins lagged, but if the cycle shifts, they may not stay quiet for long.