The MOVE Index, which tracks volatility in US Treasury yields, jumped from around 80 to above 104 in just two days, the sharpest move in months. Past spikes of this kind preceded major stress events: the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 COVID panic, and the 2023 regional bank collapses. This time, the move isn’t panic-driven. Higher oil prices, strong growth data, and rising Fed rate hike expectations are pushing yields up together, with the 10-year, 20-year and 30-year Treasuries all sitting at multi-decade highs simultaneously. Since Treasury yields underpin mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs and government debt, instability here tends to ripple across the broader financial system.
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