MSTR Stock Outlook: Could MSCI Removal Trigger Billions in Passive Selling?

MSTR stock faces a crucial institutional test as MSCI prepares to publish its November index review results. A potential exclusion could expose Strategy to billions of dollars in passive selling, adding pressure to a stock already struggling amid market uncertainty. The decision could also raise questions about the company’s ability to finance future Bitcoin purchases. Could MSCI’s decision become another setback for Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin strategy?

Why Is MSCI Considering Strategy’s Removal?

The risk stems from MSCI’s revised eligibility framework, which makes companies primarily holding investments rather than operating businesses potentially ineligible for its global equity indexes.

Under the framework, companies are assessed for substantial operating assets and then evaluated against five financial tests. A company flagged on at least four tests can become ineligible. Existing index constituents must also fail the relevant screening across two consecutive annual filing periods before removal.

Strategy is among the companies identified as potentially affected, alongside Japan’s Metaplanet and uranium investment firm Yellow Cake. MSCI’s final list is scheduled for November 11, with changes taking effect after the November 30 market close. 

Could MSTR Face $2.8 Billion in Passive Selling?

The potential financial impact is a major concern for shareholders. JPMorgan analysts estimate that Strategy’s exclusion could trigger approximately $2.8 billion in passive outflows as funds tracking MSCI benchmarks adjust their portfolios.

Strategy has indicated that funds tracking relevant MSCI indexes hold approximately 13 million MSTR shares, representing around 3.1% of its basic shares outstanding.

However, the estimated outflows do not guarantee an equivalent amount of immediate selling. The actual impact will depend on fund holdings, rebalancing decisions and the extent to which active investors maintain their positions. 

Can Buyers Defend $120?

MSTR stock closed at $121.07 on November 10, down 3.60% for the session, after trading between $118.43 and $126.40. The stock remains significantly below its 52-week high of $234.84, highlighting the pressure on its recent price performance.

Key indicators also suggest a cautious setup. Its relative strength index (RSI) stood near 34, approaching oversold territory, while the data indicated a strong sell signal. The $118–$120 area is an immediate zone to watch, with a sustained break below it potentially exposing the stock to further weakness. A recovery above $126 would be an early sign of improving buying interest. 

MSTR Stock Outlook: November 11 Is the Key Catalyst

MSCI’s announcement could determine the next major direction for MSTR stock. Exclusion would introduce another source of selling pressure, while continued index eligibility could ease an important overhang. Still, Bitcoin’s price performance and Strategy’s ability to access capital markets will remain central to its valuation.