XRP price surged to $2.10 today following the bullish sentiment in the market over the possibility of Fed rate cut in December. But even with this rise, many holders fear a big crash because the 50 EMA is getting close to the 200 EMA on the 3-day chart.
Top analyst EGRAG Crypto says this fear is not coming from real chart signals, but from ongoing negative market emotions.
In his latest post, EGRAG Crypto explains that a bearish EMA cross does not always mean the market is entering a downtrend. A true bearish confirmation only happens when the price has already dropped below both the 50 EMA and 200 EMA and when the momentum is getting weak.
Right now, that is not happening.
Instead, XRP is still trading above the 200 EMA as seen in the 3 day chart. Even more importantly, the 200 EMA is rising, not falling.
According to EGRAG, there is no technical signal of a real bear market. The cross is forming at a time when XRP still holds strong support, not when it is crashing.
Apart from it, some traders began to compare the current XRP chart to 2018, when the price crashed hard after the EMA cross. But EGRAG says the pattern doesn’t match.
Back then, in 2018, the bearish cross happened after XRP had already fallen hard. It did not warn of a crash, it only confirmed that the crash had already begun.
This time, things look very different.
EGRAG says the current pattern looks much more like 2017 and early 2021, which were two moments when XRP made some of its biggest bull runs ever. All three times shared the same signs:
If XRP follows its past behaviour, the calm we are seeing right now may not be weakness, it might turn into a major breakout.
EGRAG believes the market is not preparing for a deep drop. Instead, he calls this “late-cycle pressure,” the moment when the chart looks heavy and confusing, right before the final big push.
As of now, XRP is trading around $2.06, reflecting a jump of 1.4% in the last 24 hours.
Meanwhile, XRP is now facing strong resistance at $2.20, a level that has stopped the price several times. If XRP finally breaks above it, the path toward $2.50 becomes much clearer.
Further, a strong push from buyers could even send XRP close to $3.00.
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