XRP Price Prediction 2025—What if it Fails to Break the $2.5 Resistance? Will it Fall Below $2 in July?

The XRP price faced a strong push during the weekend, propelling the price above the consolidation. The token formed a lower low, then rebounded and was expected to break through the resistance threshold, which was preventing a strong bullish move. This move comes when the Ripple CTO claimed that Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin founder, had stacked a huge number of XRP. 

In the times when the likelihood of an XRP bull run persists and insane targets of more than $10 or $100 or more are being set, the question arises whether it can make it back to $3. 

XRP Price Stuck Within an Equilibrium

The XRP price has not displayed any major price action since the start of 2025; rather, it has remained consolidated below $2.8. Although the token bounced off the $2.2 support zone, it is showing fewer signs of a breakout above $2.3, which could result in an extended consolidation within the pattern. On the other hand, the token has failed to attract the volume that it possessed during the November 2024 breakout. Hence, the XRP price is feared to maintain a slow & steady consolidation for some more time. 

The XRP price is finding strong support at the 50-day MA at $2.22, while a resistance is at the 200-day MA at $2.36. Whenever the 200-day MA acts as a resistance to achieve, the crypto is believed to remain under bullish influence, which is substantiated by the rising RSI. Interestingly, the daily RSI has never been to the overbought or oversold zone, suggesting less participation of both the bulls and the bears. However, both are preventing the price from either rising above the resistance or plunging below the local support. 

What’s Next? Will the XRP Price Reach $5 in 2025?

In the broader perspective, the token continues to remain within a massive bullish pattern and still has more room to consolidate as the apex is not nearby. Even if the price failed to rise above the resistance or face a pullback, the bulls could help the token to reach the apex of the decisive symmetrical triangle, with $2 being a strong base. Once the token reaches these levels, a breakout could be imminent, and below are the factors that could influence the XRP price rally to a new ATH.

• A Favorable Outcome in the Ripple vs. SEC Lawsuit: A decisive court ruling for Ripple Labs could eliminate regulatory uncertainty and allow US-based exchanges to relist the token.

• Increased Institutional Adoption: RippleNet, with its On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) services, is being adopted by financial institutions for worldwide cross-border payments and hence offering a real-world utility and demand for XRP.

• XRP Ledger (XRPL) Developments: New technical upgrades such as hooks( smart contracts), sidechains, or the automated market maker (AMM) integration could make XRPL more competitive and attract developers and liquidity.

• Ripple’s Global Expansion: Ripple’s aggressive expansion into Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America gives XRP broader exposure to high-growth payment corridors.

• Overall Crypto Market Rally: In a broader bull market driven by macro trends or ETF approvals, XRP could benefit from rising investor sentiment

Considering the market conditions and the probable events occurring in the second half of 2025, it is very tough for the XRP price to reach $5, but the token may rise above $3.5 and try hard to reach $4, marking a new ATH.