With Bitcoin Stuck at 12% Below Its ATH, What Are the Chances of It Reaching 15% Above It in 2024?

The Bitcoin price began the monthly trade on a bearish note as it failed to surpass one of the important resistance levels at $71,800. After a 12% drop from the monthly highs, market participants remain uncertain about the next price action. Moreover, the analyst believes the price is on its way to slumping below $60,000, which could be the bottom of the current bearish trend. This suggests that the BTC is very close to deceiving the sellers, as the token is preparing for a massive price action in the long run. 

The long-term price action of Bitcoin appears to be bullish but a close look raises huge concerns for the upcoming trend. If we consider the RSI movement, the BTC price had to reach $100K much before, but the drop in the volume has changed the market dynamics. The price is consolidating along the middle bands of the parallel channel and the Bollinger bands are contracting, suggesting a squeeze. 

On the other hand, the activity on the platform has also been slashed to a large extent, as the active address count has dropped to a large extent. 

The active address count has dropped significantly by nearly 30% as the levels have dropped from around a million addresses per day to as low as 70K or 80K. This suggests a notable drop in trading activity as market participants may have become uncertain about the next price action. Secondly, the whales have accelerated heavily since the start of the month, which may have hampered the circulation of the token. 

The supply in the top 100 addresses has increased dramatically since the beginning of the month, rising from approximately 2.8 million to more than 3 million in less than a month. Interestingly, there is no positive impact of the whale accumulation on the BTC price, as the levels are believed to keep testing lower support in the coming days. 

Considering all the above factors, it appears that the Bitcoin (BTC) price may remain under bearish influence until the first few days of Q3, followed by a decent rebound. The current phase reflects the 2022 bear market and hence the traders are vigilant about the market dynamics. Therefore, despite a bullish reversal, the price is believed to maintain an ascending consolidation and, with the beginning of Q4, trigger a fine rise to surpass the current highs. 

Historically, the pace is expected to reduce after marking new highs and hence the rally could get stuck at $75,000 for a while, but the new ATH could be around $80,000 in 2024.