The Bitcoin price faced a notable pullback after a failed attempt to sustain itself above the gained levels. The BTC price dropped below $107K while Ethereum and the other altcoins also witnessed a similar pullback. The ongoing crypto crash occurred at times when the stock market has also been facing a sell-off. The BTC price recovered despite the Moody’s shockwaves in the financial market by downgrading the US credit rating.
Regardless of the upward pressure, Bitcoin displays huge upward potential of marking a fresh ATH in the coming days.
While the institutions are piling up Bitcoin, the retailers do not seem to have entered the space. The Google search trends show retail interest is still only half of what it was in November 2024, which suggests smart money is buying while retail stays silent. This can be considered a huge bullish signal, as there was no hype, no frenzy, despite the BTC price forming new highs. On the other hand, funding rates are neutral, which hints that the leverage is under control.
While there are no signs of overexposure in futures, a healthy structure is expected to continue. With the BTC price holding up above $100K, the trade setup hints at more upside ahead.
Bitcoin saw a sharp and aggressive drop following Donald Trump’s surprise announcement of a 50% tariff on EU imports. The sudden macro triggered broad risk-off flows, with BTC quickly selling off from local highs near $111.3K and tapping into a key fair value gap around $107.5K. Although the price witnessed a short-term bounce since the low, it failed to be validated as a bullish reversal. Currently, the momentum remains fragile, and the overall structure still favors caution as Bitcoin trades within a compression zone.
The BTC price is trapped between two major fair value gaps, which are currently the threshold for the upcoming market direction. If the bulls reclaim the $109K to $110K area, the bulls could gain strength and push the levels towards the higher resistance beyond $112K. These levels line up with a larger supply zone and could become a key-magnet zone. On the flip side, if the BTC fails to hold the lower FVG and breaks below $107,000, it may enter the liquidity pool around $106K, which could be supported by price inefficiency and unmitigated demand just below.
The current trade setup hints towards a major compression, and hence it is important that the Bitcoin (BTC) price does not get trapped in the middle range. Therefore, it would be important to witness which FVG will be filled ahead of the monthly close.
Donald Trump’s tariff announcements historically trigger “risk-off” sentiment, leading to Bitcoin and altcoin sell-offs as investors move away from speculative assets amid global economic uncertainty.
A US credit rating downgrade can sometimes positively affect Bitcoin long-term by shaking confidence in traditional finance, prompting investors to seek alternative assets like Bitcoin as a hedge. Sources
The market is in a compression zone. While the overall structure remains healthy with institutional interest, short-term caution is advised as Bitcoin navigates key support and resistance levels.
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