Price Analysis View Non-AMP

TRUMP Coin Set For First Major Token Unlock This July. ARB, SUIAnd More To Follow

Published by
Mustafa Mulla

With several high-profile unlocks already underway, July 2025 continues to shape up as one of the most impactful months, with over $1.8 billion in cumulative value scheduled, including the now-completed $323M unlock from SUI earlier this month, the largest of July. According to TokenUnlocks data, unlock activity will peak in the third week of July at nearly $1 billion.

This influx of supply comes at a time of cautious market sentiment and reactive liquidity flows, turning each event into a potential catalyst. From Solana-based meme coins like TRUMP to Layer-2 leaders like Arbitrum (ARB) and modular chains like SUI, the unlock wave offers both risk and short-term trading opportunities.

Official Trump (TRUMP) Token Unlock

Image Source: Cryptorank

Unlock Date: July 18, 2025
Unlock Amount: ~90M TRUMP
Value: ~$455M–$462M
% of Max Supply: ~9%
Category: Creators & CIC Digital 1–4 allocations

President Donald Trump has reportedly added over $620 million to his net worth through cryptocurrency ventures, with the TRUMP token playing a central role. The token, a Solana-based meme coin that once surged on viral hype and political fandom, is now at the centre of a substantial unlock event that could impact price volatility and market sentiment. This unlock marks the first major release of team and contributor tokens, following a 6–12 month cliff. With only 20% of TRUMP’s 1 billion supply currently circulating, the upcoming 9% unlock significantly changes its tokenomics, introducing new liquidity and potential sell pressure.

TRUMPUSDT Price Analysis: Bearish Structure Ahead of Major Unlock

Image Source: Trading View

TRUMP is trading around $8.60, consolidating in a tight range ahead of its $455M token unlock on July 18. Price action remains subdued, with the formation of lower highs since its $11.30 peak in early June.

The Alligator indicators that represent different timeframes and help traders identify when a market is trending, consolidating, or preparing to reverse are fully fanned out in a bearish formation, with the green line (Lips) trailing below the red (Teeth) and blue (Jaw), confirming a persistent downtrend.

The RSI at 38.5, while rising slightly above its signal line at 36.8, suggests weak bullish momentum but still hovers in bearish territory, implying hesitation from buyers.

A breakdown below $8.00 could accelerate losses to $7.50, with $6.90 as the next major demand zone.

Conversely, a close above $9.20 is needed to invalidate this structure and target $10.50. Until then, the unlock event and broader meme coin fatigue weigh heavily on sentiment.

Arbitrum (ARB) Token Unlock – Strong L2, Soft Price Structure?

Source: tokenomist.ai

Unlock Date: July 16, 2025
Unlock Amount: ~92.65M ARB
Value: ~$30.3M
% of Max Supply: ~1.17%
Category: Team & Advisor allocation

Image Source: Defilama

Arbitrum remains the dominant force among Ethereum Layer-2s, currently holding over $2.4 billion in TVL—representing approximately 55–60% of all L2 value locked, as per DeFiLlama.

June saw explosive growth across Arbitrum DeFi protocols like Uniswap, Fluid, and SushiSwap, collectively drawing 2.4M+ users and sustaining high DEX liquidity.

Yet, despite strong fundamentals, the upcoming unlock for team and advisors introduces a fresh token supply that could dampen short-term price action.

ARBUSD Price Analysis: Stalled Recovery with Bearish Tilt

Image Source: Trading View

Arbitrum (ARB) trades at $0.33, consolidating below the $0.34 resistance after multiple failed attempts to push higher. Price structure remains fragile, with no clear higher highs since the late June bounce. The Williams %R sits at –67, indicating bearish momentum creeping back in as buyers struggle to sustain pressure.

Support rests near $0.310, with a breakdown risking a slide toward $0.285. If bears gain traction post-unlock, deeper moves toward $0.250 could follow.

On the upside, ARB must close above $0.342 to signal a trend reversal. A breakout there could pave the way to $0.375 and possibly $0.41 if momentum revives alongside strong L2 narrative traction.

Other Upcoming Token Unlocks to Watch – July 2025

1. ZRO (LayerZero) – July 20

LayerZero, the newly launched omnichain interoperability protocol, is set to unlock 24.68M ZRO tokens (~$46.5M)—its first major post-airdrop release, expanding circulating supply by over 2.5% within weeks of listing.

2. AVAIL – July 23

AVAIL, the modular data availability chain founded by a Polygon co-creator, will unlock 990.6M tokens (~$23.7M)—a staggering 9.2% of its total supply, potentially triggering volatility in the under-the-radar L1 space.

3. XDAO – July 21

XDAO, a rising DAO infrastructure protocol, will release 6.44M tokens worth over $330M, a disproportionately large unlock that could create sharp price swings given its low market cap and liquidity.

4. MOCA – July 11

MOCA, a Web3 culture and GameFi governance token, is scheduled to unlock 241.72M tokens this week, aimed at community and contributor rewards, injecting liquidity into a niche but growing ecosystem.

5. PLUME – July 21

Plume Network, focused on real-world asset tokenization, is unlocking 239.8M tokens (~$21M) just ahead of its mainnet launch phase, highlighting investor interest in the RWA narrative

Mustafa Mulla

Mustafa has been writing about Blockchain and crypto since many years. He has previous trading experience and has been working in the Fintech industry since 2017.

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