The Toncoin price has been plunging since the rejection that it faced in the first few days of the year. The token continued to form consecutive lower highs and lows as bears held a tight grip over the rally. Currently, it is attempting a recovery after a prolonged downtrend, but the broader structure remains under pressure. While price is showing signs of stabilization, derivatives data suggest that market positioning is still not supportive of a strong directional move.
This raises questions about whether the TON price has entered a recovery phase or remains stuck within the descending trend.
Data from Coinglass shows that Toncoin’s open interest has dropped significantly from nearly $300 million to around $180 million, indicating a clear unwinding of positions. Despite recent price fluctuations, OI has not shown any meaningful expansion, with the latest uptick remaining relatively flat and lacking a strong buildup. This suggests the current move is not backed by fresh leveraged participation but rather reflects low-conviction price action.
The earlier phase was marked by position unwinding rather than the buildup of new exposure. Even now, the market shows little evidence of fresh leveraged participation, with no clear signs of a short squeeze or aggressive long positioning. As a result, the current move cannot be classified as a derivatives-driven rally but rather reflects a low-conviction price expansion.
The daily chart shows TON trading within a falling wedge, maintaining a clear structure of lower highs and lower lows. The recent bounce is now approaching the upper boundary of this channel, aligning with a key horizontal resistance zone.
Besides, momentum is building up as the RSI breaks above the descending trend and reaches the neutral zone. However, the price lacks strong breakout volume, and hence, the structure remains intact to the south.
Key Levels to Watch:
TON is showing early signs of stabilization, but both price structure and derivatives data remain unaligned for a strong trend reversal. Until the price breaks the resistance and open interest surges, Toncoin is likely to remain range-bound. A move above $1.45 could push toward $1.67 and later to $1.9, while a rejection could drag the levels to $1.25 and later close to $1.
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