Stifel Warns Bitcoin Could Drop to $38k: Here Is Why

Stifel Financial Corp. (NYSE: SF) has issued a bold midterm prediction for Bitcoin (BTC) price. With Bitcoin price down 42% from its peak to hit a 14 month low of about $72k earlier today, Stifel stated that the flagship coin is on the cusp of further capitulation, with a target of $38k.

Stifel Warns of a 46% Bitcoin Drop in 2026

With the crypto market having lost more than $1.7 trillion in the past few months, Stifel cautioned that institutional and retail interest has dropped heavily. As such, the behemoth financial institution believes that the extreme fear will push Bitcoin price to $38,000 in coming months.

Stifel based this Bitcoin prediction on the past cycles, where a potential top was hit in October 2025. The bank cited tighter Fed’s policy, slow U.S. crypto regulations, shrinking liquidity, and heavy spot BTC ETFs outflow as the lagging indicator for a major selloff ahead. 

What’s the Bigger Picture

Bitcoin price is well positioned to rally exponentially before the end of 2026 catalyzed by supportive liquidity flow. Moreover, the weakening U.S. dollar amid expected reversal of Gold price is a lagging indicator for a bullish Bitcoin outlook.

Moreover, Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, believes that Bitcoin price is very close to its bear market bottom.  According to John Deaton, Bitcoin price has suffered suppression through paper contracts in a similar manner as Silver by the traditional banks.

Nevertheless, Bitcoin is well poised to rebound backed by the notable decline in its supply amid a rising demand. Earlier today, Senator Cynthia Lummis urged Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to buy Bitcoin using the country’s Gold reserves.