Stellar Eyes a Breakout as Network Activity Spikes to 114K Users—Will XLM Price Make it to $0.20?

Stellar (XLM) price is showing early signs of revival as on-chain activity and derivatives participation accelerate. The token has gained over 8% in the past 24 hours, trading near $0.718, as improving market sentiment supports selective strength in altcoins.

While no single catalyst has emerged, rising social media attention around Stellar’s partnerships with MoneyGram and Visa, along with its growing role in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, appears to be driving renewed interest.

Despite this, XLM continues to lag in price structure while leading in underlying activity—a divergence that often precedes a larger move. Whether this momentum translates into a confirmed breakout now remains the key question.

Stellar Gains Traction as Network Activity Spikes

Recent data shows that Stellar’s daily active users have surged to nearly 114,000, marking a clear breakout from its typical range of 60,000 to 80,000 users over the past year. This spike signals a renewed level of engagement on the network, suggesting increased usage rather than speculative noise alone.

At the same time, derivatives data support this trend. Open interest has climbed toward $178 million, indicating that traders are actively entering positions. Meanwhile, funding rates have turned slightly positive, reflecting a mild bullish bias without signs of overheating. Taken together, these metrics point to growing market participation, even as price action remains relatively subdued.

XLM Derivatives Data Signals Rising Participation, But Breakout Remains Unconfirmed

On the daily timeframe, Stellar price continues to trade within a broader downtrend structure, marked by a series of lower highs despite recent recovery attempts. The price is currently hovering near the $0.17–$0.18 range, indicating a short-term bounce rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

Volume and Order Flow: The buy-sell volume data shows mixed momentum, with selling pressure still present during multiple sessions. Although recent green bars indicate renewed buying interest, the overall delta remains relatively neutral, suggesting that buyers have not fully taken control.

Open Interest (OI): Open interest has climbed sharply to nearly $178 million, reflecting a surge in market participation. This rise indicates that traders are actively building positions. However, without a corresponding price breakout, increasing OI may also signal leveraged positioning, which can lead to volatility if positions unwind.

Liquidations: Liquidation data remains relatively stable, with no major spikes. This suggests the market has not yet experienced a large-scale squeeze, keeping both upside and downside scenarios open.

Funding Rate: The funding rate has turned slightly positive, indicating a mild bullish sentiment among derivatives traders. Importantly, the rate is not elevated, which means the market is not overheated, leaving room for further upside if momentum builds.

Key Technical Outlook

• Resistance: $0.19–$0.20 (critical breakout zone)
• Support: $0.16–$0.165

As long as the XLM price trades below the $0.20 level, the structure remains range-bound with a bearish bias. A confirmed breakout above this zone, supported by rising volume, could open the path toward $0.22 and $0.25. On the downside, failure to sustain momentum may lead to a retest of the $0.16 support, especially if rising open interest results in a long liquidation event.

Will the Bullish Momentum Sustain?

Stellar is showing signs of underlying strength, with both on-chain and derivatives data pointing toward increasing interest. However, until price action confirms this shift with a breakout above key resistance, the trend remains uncertain. While Stellar’s rising activity and derivatives metrics provide early bullish signals, price confirmation remains the missing piece.

For a sustained uptrend to develop, XLM will need:

• Continued growth in network usage
• Strong volume accompanying any breakout
• Support from the broader altcoin market

Without these factors, the current setup risks turning into a short-term buildup rather than a lasting trend reversal. For now, Stellar (XLM) price is at a turning point—one that could either trigger a breakout or reinforce its existing range.