Solana Price Prediction for February 2026: Will SOL Reclaim $100 or Drop to $60?

Solana (SOL) price has staged a sharp rebound after plunging to an intraday low of $67.31, a level not seen since December 2023. The drop came amid heavy liquidation-driven selling that erased over $350 billion from the total crypto market capitalization.

Since then, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $67,000 mark, while SOL has rebounded above $83, fueling hopes that the market may have already formed a bottom. However, beneath the surface, sentiment remains cautious. Technical signals and on-chain data indicate that traders are still hesitant to commit, suggesting the bounce may be driven more by short-term positioning than a clear shift in market confidence.

Spot Traders Turn Optimistic While Long-Term Investors Remain Cautious

The crypto market has shown signs of recovery after rebounding from recent lows, but underlying data suggests the move is still being driven more by positioning than long-term conviction. While prices have bounced and trading activity has picked up, several key metrics indicate that the market remains cautious beneath the surface.

Active addresses are increasing, and DEX trading volumes have climbed, suggesting higher participation and capital rotation as volatility returns. These trends often emerge during early recovery phases, when traders begin testing the market after a sell-off.

However, not all signals are supportive. Total Value Locked (TVL) continues to decline, indicating that long-term capital is still being withdrawn from protocols. This suggests that while traders are active, longer-term investors and liquidity providers remain cautious and unwilling to commit.

Short Positions Pile While SOL Price Rebounds

Solana’s price action over the past few weeks has been choppy and uncertain. After dropping more than 21% from monthly highs above $106, SOL has bounced back about 18% from the lows. The increase in active addresses shows more traders stepping in, which has also pushed volatility higher. Still, the rebound hasn’t fully convinced the market, as many participants appear to be positioning for a possible rejection rather than a clean recovery.

Following the rebound, open interest has started to rise, indicating that new positions are being opened rather than the move being driven purely by short covering. At the same time, funding rates remain negative, showing that traders are still skewed toward short positions despite the price recovery. This combination points to disbelief in the rally rather than aggressive bullish positioning.

Taken together, the data paints a clear picture: the market is seeing renewed activity and speculation, but not yet a return of confidence. For the rebound to develop into a sustained recovery, price strength would need to persist alongside stabilization in TVL and a gradual shift in positioning. Until then, the current move appears to be an early, fragile phase rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

What’s Next for SOL Price: A Rise to $100 or Drop to $60?

Solana’s price is currently in a make-or-break zone. The rebound from the lows has been sharp, but a trend reversal has not been confirmed yet. For the bullish continuation to $100, the price is required to hold above $80 to $82 and reclaim the resistance around $93 to $95. A failure could drag the price back to $70, triggering a deeper correction to $60 or below.

Therefore, the weekly close can be important for the Solana (SOL) price, which may further decide the next price action.