Pi Coin Price Crashes 45% After Hype Fades: Is More Downside Coming?

Pi Coin plunged 45% after a brief rally fueled by Consensus 2025 announcements, with indicators and on-chain data signalling weakening momentum and a bearish outlook unless new catalysts emerge.

Key Highlights:

• Pi Coin is down 45% from its recent high, currently trading at $0.6984.
• Market cap rose 95% in 5 days and then dropped $3.7B within 3 days.
• Top 100 wallet concentration fell from 98.76% to under 5% from May 6 to May 16.
• EMAs at $0.79–$0.85 have turned into resistance, confirming bearish momentum.
• Analyst outlook remains cautiously bearish amid fading indicators and failed support.

Pi Network (PI) is currently trading at $0.6984, down over 45% from its recent high of $1.57 with market cap now at $5.1B. From May 8 to May 13, Pi’s market cap jumped from $4.5B to $8.8B, almost doubling in just five days. But by May 16, it had fallen back to $5.1B, losing over $3.7B in value in just three days.

This sharp drop came after a short-lived price boost caused by major announcements — including the shutdown of Pi’s central node and the launch of a $100M Pi Network Ventures fund, both revealed during Consensus 2025 (May 13–14).

The fast rise and fall show that Pi’s price still reacts quickly to news rather than steady growth. While the rally briefly caught market attention, the rapid drop has heightened caution among traders.

PI/USDT Technical Analysis: Indicators Show Weak Momentum and Bearish Bias

The rally that started on May 8 lifted Pi above $1, peaking at $1.57 on May 13, driven by major news. But buying power faded just as fast.

Now, Pi trades under the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs — stacked between $0.79–$0.85 — which have flipped into resistance. The MACD has turned bearish, with the line almost crossing below the signal. The histogram, though not yet red, is narrowing, signalling fading buying pressure. The RSI, now at 42, points to neutral-to-bearish momentum.

The On-Balance Volume (OBV), which reflects buying vs. selling pressure, has dropped over 12% from its recent high, indicating a slowdown in net accumulation. Resistance sits at $0.79–$0.85.

Pi Coin is now testing key support levels at $0.68 and $0.59, which were important price zones before the rally on May 8. Instead of moving sideways in a range, the price has dropped from the peak and is now settling where buyers previously stepped in, waiting for a fresh trigger to move again.

A fall below $0.59 could open the way to $0.45. The Analysis of the PI network remains cautiously bearish unless Pi reclaims its EMAs with strong volume.

Pi On-Chain Metrics: Wallet Concentration Shift and Volume Drop

Volume surged to $2.2B on May 12, then dropped to $588M by May 16, down 73%, suggesting a fading hype cycle.

The CoinCarp chart, which displays wallet distribution by holder ranks, shows that the Top 100 wallet concentration dropped sharply from 98.76% on May 6 to 14.76% by May 13, before settling under 5% by May 16.

On May 13 specifically, the top 10 holders owned just 1.31%, and the top 50 held 2.7%. This dramatic shift likely reflects internal wallet reshuffling rather than actual retail distribution. The rapid redistribution during the rally aligns with bearish technical indicators, showing that major holders possibly took profits during the hype phase..

Conclusion: Event-Reactive Sentiment Keeps Pi Coin Volatile

Pi Network’s 45% rally and the subsequent steep correction were driven by short-lived hype, notably from announcements made during Consensus 2025 (May 13–14).

This reflects how event-based sentiment still drives Pi’s price more than fundamental progress. The rapid market cap swing — a $3.7B decline in just three days — reveals how sensitive Pi remains to major headlines.

Going forward, potential catalysts such as a mainnet activation or ecosystem adoption could reignite interest. Until then, Pi Coin is likely to continue trading on speculative momentum, and traders should monitor support zones closely for further downside risk or relief bounce attempts.