​​Is the Bitcoin Bull Market Still Alive? 5 Reasons For and Against the Next Big Rally

Bitcoin (BTC) price‘s explosive rise through 2024 and early 2025 has led to one question dominating crypto markets: Is the bull market still intact, or is the cycle already losing steam?

While institutional adoption and post-halving dynamics offer strong tailwinds, technical cracks and cycle fatigue raise valid concerns. A popular analyst, anonymously known as Crypto Seth, lists the top 5 reasons for and against a Bitcoin bull market. 

5 Reasons Supporting a Continued Bitcoin Bull Market

• Institutional Access Is Expanding Rapidly: Major financial giants like Vanguard and BlackRock are now offering crypto-exposed ETFs and mutual funds. BlackRock’s IBIT even recorded $1B in day-one volume when trading opened at Vanguard, boosting liquidity and legitimizing Bitcoin for traditional investors.

• Spot ETF Demand Remains a Structural Tailwind: Despite volatility, spot Bitcoin ETFs represent a permanent shift in market access. Whenever risk sentiment improves or macro pressure eases, ETF inflows tend to surge—reigniting bullish momentum.

• Macro Tailwinds From Potential Fed Rate Cuts: The Federal Reserve is expected to begin cutting rates in 2026. Lower rates historically push capital toward risk assets like Bitcoin, supporting a renewed bullish phase.

• The Halving Supply Shock Still Has Long-Term Effects: The April 2024 Bitcoin halving cut daily issuance by 50%, tightening supply. Historically, halving cycles take 12–24 months to play out fully, meaning the supply shock could still fuel further upside.

• Long-Term Analyst Projections Remain Strong: Top analysts continue to expect Bitcoin to deliver upwards of 200% gains between 2025 and 2030, citing its growing maturity, liquidity, and adoption as a macro asset.

5 Reasons Threatening the Bitcoin Bull Market

• The 4-Year Halving Cycle May Be Topping Out: Some analysts believe Bitcoin may have already peaked in the current halving cycle, which would signal the beginning of a late-cycle cool-off or a multi-quarter correction phase.

• Technical Breakdown Below Key Moving Averages: Bitcoin recently dropped below its 50-week moving average, a classic bearish signal suggesting weakening trend strength and potential distribution among large holders.

• Significant ETF Outflows During Volatility: While ETFs are a bullish force on inflows, they can also reverse sharply. Recent volatility triggered massive outflows, proving institutions can exit just as fast as they enter.

• Deep Corrections Highlight Fragile Sentiment: Bitcoin has already faced a 36% correction from the $126K ATH. Large drawdowns are common—but repeated, deeper corrections often indicate a maturing or weakening bull market.

• Bitcoin’s Market Maturity Limits Exponential Upside: As BTC grows into a trillion-dollar asset, it becomes harder to replicate past 10x or 20x moves. Analysts caution that future bull cycles may be more gradual rather than parabolic.

Conclusion: A Bull Market That Is Possible—but Fragile

The evidence suggests the Bitcoin bull run could continue, supported by structural ETF demand, a favorable macro environment, and post-halving supply pressure. But emerging risks—especially cycle exhaustion, technical breakdowns, and institutional outflows—mean the rally is more fragile than previous cycles. Bitcoin (BTC) price may not repeat the explosive parabolic rallies of the past, but it can still grind higher if structural demand surpasses cyclical fatigue.