How Low Could Ethereum Go If $3,500 Support Breaks?

The Ethereum price suffered a steep decline as panic gripped global markets, pulling ETH/USD from near $4,300 to a low of $3,510 before partially rebounding toward $3,830. The move came amid one of the largest single-day selloffs of 2025, fueled by nearly $19 billion in crypto liquidations. 

This scared market participants and institutions worldwide, even the most sturdiest Blackrock ETH ETF product “ETHA” saw $80.2 million outflow alongside the outflows by other AUM’s.

Broader market sentiment turned sharply risk-off following renewed geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty. The ETH price today mirrored the overall crypto downturn, with Bitcoin, Solana, and other large-cap tokens facing double-digit losses. 

Despite the steep drop, Ethereum managed to stabilize slightly above $3,800 as buyers stepped in at major technical support levels.

Tariff Shock Triggers Sell-Off Across Markets

The catalyst behind the decline stemmed from political headlines rather than blockchain fundamentals. Late Friday, President Donald Trump announced via Truth Social that the U.S. would impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1. He also hinted the move could come sooner, depending on China’s response.

In addition, it was rumoured that Trump would not meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the upcoming APEC South Korea 2025 summit on Oct 29-31, but he denied this rumour personally, today in the media. A signal that trade tensions could have a chance to get better rather than intensify as Trump is already becoming more angrier. 

However, the spike in tariff rate majorly rattled both traditional and digital asset markets, triggering widespread selling pressure.

Global indices reacted swiftly: the S&P 500 fell 2.71%, the Dow Jones dropped nearly 1.90%, while gold often seen as a safe-haven surged 1.02% to $4,016 per ounce. As investors sought stability, ETH crypto and other risk assets experienced sharp outflows.

Technical Picture Turns Bearish but Long-Term Outlook Holds

From a technical standpoint, the Ethereum price chart shows a temporary breakdown in bullish momentum. A bearish crossover between the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA) confirmed short-term selling pressure. 

However, the 200-day EMA, a critical long-term support indicator, continues to hold firm, preventing deeper losses for now.

If the 200-day EMA and the $3,500 support zone remain intact, a recovery toward $3,900 or even $4,100 is possible in the short term. But a decisive break below this level could expose Ethereum to further downside, with potential targets near $3,100 or even $2,600 according to the ETH price forecast.

Still, long-term market observers remain cautiously optimistic. Despite short-term volatility, Ethereum’s on-chain health, active developer ecosystem, and continued staking participation could support gradual recovery once macroeconomic pressures ease.

Buyers Eye Recovery as Macro Factors Stabilize

As the market digests the impact of tariffs and potential rate adjustments, traders are watching how Ethereum price USD behaves near its long-term support. A stabilization above $3,500 could renew buying momentum, especially as institutional accumulation resumes across key exchange addresses.

At this point, the Ethereum price sits at a crucial crossroads holding above its lifeline support could determine whether the current correction becomes a springboard for the next bullish wave or extends into a deeper pullback phase.