Has ADA Price Fallen Too Far? What Cardano’s Price Structure Signals Next

Cardano continues to lag the broader crypto market, trading near $0.36–0.37 after a prolonged decline, while an extended sell-off has kept the price locked inside a descending structure. Despite a modest intraday bounce, ADA remains well below key resistance zones, leaving traders focused on whether this move marks early base-building or just another pause within a broader downtrend. With the demand fading off and the technicals pointing towards a recovery, can the ADA price rise above $0.4?

Current ADA Price Action

At the time of writing, ADA is trading around $0.36, with a market capitalisation of roughly $13–14 billion, keeping it among the top large-cap altcoins.

• 24-hour volume: approximately $250–350 million, modest compared to earlier cycles
• Recent price change: ADA is down around 2–4% on the week, with only shallow rebounds
• Trend context: Price remains range-bound but biased lower, reflecting weak participation from momentum buyers

Volume remains muted, suggesting traders are cautious rather than aggressively positioning.

Short-Term Cardano Price Analysis

On the 4-hour chart, Cardano (ADA) remains trapped inside a descending broadening wedge, reflecting persistent lower highs and controlled selling pressure. Price is currently hovering around $0.36–0.37, after bouncing from the lower boundary of the channel. Presently, the price is attempting to break the resistance, and if it succeeds, a rise from $0.39 to $0.41 could be imminent. 

Momentum indicators hint at early stabilisation, but not a confirmed reversal. RSI has lifted modestly from oversold territory, while MACD is attempting a bullish crossover near the zero line. Bollinger Bands have started to compress, suggesting volatility is contracting—often a precursor to a directional move.

For any short-term recovery to gain traction, ADA must break and hold above $0.38–0.40, which aligns with prior horizontal resistance and the channel’s upper boundary. Failure to do so keeps the bias neutral-to-bearish.

Long-Term Cardano Price Analysis

From a weekly perspective, ADA remains firmly in a broader corrective phase. Price continues to trend lower within a well-defined descending parallel channel that has been in place for several months, following the rejection from the $0.80–$1.00 region earlier in the year.

The current price zone near $0.36 sits just above a key long-term demand area, where buyers have previously stepped in to slow declines. However, momentum on the weekly chart remains weak, with MACD still below the signal line and OBV rolling over—indicating limited accumulation so far.

Structurally, ADA needs a weekly close above $0.45–0.50 to signal a meaningful shift in trend. Until that happens, the broader setup suggests consolidation or further downside risk toward the $0.30–0.32 support band remains possible.

Conclusion

The current setup suggests that Cardano price can rise above $0.40, but only if buyers show follow-through rather than short-covering. A move above this level would signal that selling pressure is easing and could trigger a relief rally toward higher resistance zones. However, without sustained volume and acceptance above $0.40, any bounce risks fading quickly. Until that confirmation appears, ADA remains in a recovery attempt rather than a confirmed trend reversal, keeping both upside and downside scenarios firmly in play.