Ethereum’s Layer‑2 Surge Signals Next ETH Price Rally—But a Key Hurdle Remains

Ethereum has entered a fresh consolidation phase near $3,078, yet its broader ecosystem appears to be heating up faster than the price suggests. While Bitcoin’s volatility has dominated market sentiment, Ethereum’s Layer-2 networks have quietly taken over the majority of transaction activity across the entire ecosystem. With L2s now processing more transactions than Ethereum itself and a major upgrade scheduled for early December, the groundwork for the next ETH price rally may already be forming beneath the surface.

Layer-2 Networks Now Drive Ethereum’s Activity

Ethereum’s Layer-2 networks have become the primary driver of activity across the ecosystem, handling more transactions than the base layer itself. These solutions reduce fees, increase throughput, and allow faster settlements, enabling developers and users to scale applications efficiently without congestion. This shift highlights how Ethereum’s growth is increasingly L2‑driven, even if the ETH price hasn’t fully reflected it yet.

Key On-Chain Metrics 

• Daily active addresses: Stable, showing no major drop in user activity
• ETH supply post-Merge: Continues trending neutral to slightly deflationary
• Transaction fees: Lower than Q1–Q3 2024 levels, improving network usage conditions
• L2 gas consumption: Consistently rising, reflecting heavy rollup usage
• Developer activity: Among the highest across smart-contract networks
• L2s now process over 58.5% of all Ethereum ecosystem transactions.
• Total L2 TVL has grown to $43.3 billion, marking a 36.7% YoY surge.

Several major L2 networks are leading this surge, including Arbitrum, Optimism, Base, zkSync, and Starknet, each processing millions of transactions daily. Their growing adoption reflects Ethereum’s scaling progress and underlines why L2 growth could be the catalyst for the next ETH price rally.

Upcoming Ethereum Upgrade: Fusaka Activation on Dec 3, 2025

Ethereum’s next major upgrade, Fusaka, is scheduled for December 3, 2025, and aims to further enhance the network’s efficiency and Layer-2 scalability. This upgrade introduces PeerDAS blob sampling, improved data handling for rollups, and optimizations for BPO forks, all designed to reduce congestion and costs on L2 networks.

Expected Impacts:

• 40%–60% reduction in Layer-2 data fees, making transactions cheaper for end-users and developers.

• Higher rollup throughput allows for more transactions per second and smoother network operations.

• Faster settlement confirmation on L2s, strengthening Ethereum’s role as the base layer for scalable applications.

Historically, Ethereum upgrades such as EIP-1559 and Dencun have triggered increased on-chain activity and positive medium-term price moves. Fusaka could similarly act as a catalyst, reinforcing Ethereum’s L2 ecosystem and potentially providing momentum for ETH’s next price rally.

Ethereum Price Stabilises Above $3000

Following the recovery from the local lows close to $2700, the ETH price has managed not only to rise above $3000, but also to hold the range. The price is surging even in times of thin liquidity, which indicates the bulls are overpowering the bears in the short term. However, a breakout above $3150 may validate a reversal, but the technicals currently remain neutral. 

The ETH price has begun to rebound, which may appear as the start of a recovery phase, but the major challenge remains. The 50/200-day MA are close to undergoing a bearish crossover, called the ’death cross,’ which has a massive negative impact on the rally. Previously, in March, this caused a 45% pullback, and if it validates now, the ETH price is feared to drop as low as $3,350. However, the RSI remains elevated; hence, the Ethereum price could stay in a consolidation phase for a while. 

Market sentiment remains under fear despite the recovery. Besides, the strength behind Ethereum lies in the L2S and the upcoming upgrade. Therefore, we need to wait and see how the next ETH price action unfolds, as a rise to $2500, which is an important resistance, may shed light on the path to $5000.