Ethereum price has been doing what traders want to see on the scoreboard: it’s outpacing Bitcoin from the January lows. Yet the tape still feels heavy. While BTC’s rally looks cleaner, ETH continues to trade like a market that’s not fully convinced but grinding inside a consolidation zone even after a strong bounce.
When ETH leads on percentage gains but struggles to break free from its range, it usually means one of two things. Either the market is absorbing supply before a breakout, or the rally is being sold into and needs more time to build a base.
So the key question isn’t whether the ETH price can move, as it is already moving. The real question is what price needs to be reclaimed to confirm a breakout, and how far ETH could run if the range finally resolves to the upside.
Market rallies don’t just show up on price charts, as they also show up in how holders behave when they move coins on-chain. That’s where SOPR becomes useful, because it reveals whether selling is happening at a profit or at a loss. It’s the ratio between the sale price of the tokens being spent and their original buy price, which makes it one of the important indicators to watch.
The Glassnode data suggests the ETH SOPR is below 1, which indicates the coins are spent at a loss. This usually signals that the sellers are exiting positions at every rebound that are still underwater. Therefore, Ethereum is still not absorbing the selling pressure, as the bulls do not appear to be confident. Hence, a sustained ETH SOPR above 1 could indicate more confidence that may eventually trigger a breakout.
Currently, the market participants do not appear to be optimistic about the ETH price rally, and as a result, the token surges quickly following a BTC price breakout. It also attracts more gains than Bitcoin but lags the conviction the star token carries. Therefore, Ethereum needs more time to squash the sellers, and this could be when the price may trigger a strong breakout to higher targets.
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