Can Toncoin Flip $2.88 Barrier & Retest $5 In The Short-term?

Toncoin (TON) is trading at $2.81 currently, showing small gains with a 24-hour price gain of 1.5%. The coin has a 24-hour trading volume of $140.32 million and a market capitalization of $6.96 billion, showing moderate investor interest.

After a sharp decline earlier this week, Toncoin’s aspirations for a golden visa have been dashed, following a firm denial from UAE authorities regarding claims that crypto investments could lead to residency eligibility. 

Despite this setback, TON price seems to have found some stability, trading above key support levels in a consolidation trend. The TON Foundation’s recent efforts to clarify the whole situation saved it from collapsing its price deeper into the abyss.

They said the program was the result of an independent collaboration with a licensed partner, and the UAE government was not directly involved. This explanation has done little to reassure investors, many of whom feel misled.

However, analyzing the current market situation, it has been revealed that TON is in a real tight competition between buyers and sellers, with neither side gaining full control. Expert analyst Ali Martinez has commented that for the bulls to gain an advantage in the short term, TON must overcome a crucial resistance level at $2.88.

Toncoin Price Analysis On Daily Time Frame

The TON price is currently facing significant selling pressure, a trend that has persisted since its high of $8.33 marked in the first half of 2024. As we move into early July 2025, the price has experienced a steep decline of 391 days, erasing over 65% of its gains.

This downward trend suggests that investors are dissatisfied with the returns and utility of TON, resulting in muted price action. The last bullish movement occurred in March 2025, when the price jumped from $2.44 to $4.20. However, bears quickly regained control, leading to a prolonged multi-month decline.

Throughout the first half of 2025, TON remained below the 200-day EMA. In July, it attempted to rally but has encountered resistance around the 20-day and 50-day EMA bands. 

The price action during this period resembles a descending triangle pattern, which, offers a glimmer of hope in a concerning situation in TON. Historically, this pattern can lead to strong breakouts under favorable bullish conditions.

If the bears lose their grip and the pattern breaks to the upside, we could see TON price retest the $5 mark in the short term. However, a frank assessment of the technical indicators reveals neutral signals, suggesting that sideways movement may continue for now.