The SOL price has surged from $97 in April to $223.52 by September 11, forming a converging ascending wedge on the Solana price chart. However, heavy whale deposits on exchanges now make the price action critical, with a rejection toward $200 or a breakout toward $258 both in play.
On the daily timeframe, the SOL price today is trading around $223 after striking the upper border of a converging ascending wedge pattern. This structure has guided its rally over the past five months. However, hitting the wedge’s top band typically signals potential exhaustion, and the current rejection hints at a pullback toward the $200 support zone.
Adding to the caution, on-chain data revealed that a whale wallet (CMJiHu) deposited 527,590 SOL which is worth approximately $117.5 million into exchanges within the past 16 hours.
Such large deposits often precede sell-offs, raising concerns of increased supply hitting the market. If selling intensifies, it could drive SOL price USD below $200, confirming a breakdown from the wedge and triggering a possible bearish trend.
Despite the mounting selling pressure, short-term traders are watching closely for a possible short squeeze. If demand surges and bearish positions get liquidated, the SOL price prediction could flip bullish once more.
In that scenario, a rally toward the $238 to $258 supply zone would be likely before facing the next resistance. Conversely, if short positions increase further, the SOL price forecast leans toward a breakdown from the wedge and a deeper retracement.
The $200 zone stands as the critical line in the sand for Solana crypto. Holding this level would maintain the bullish structure, keeping chances open for a move toward $258 in September. However, losing it would invalidate the ascending wedge pattern, opening the door for a trend reversal and a longer-term bearish phase.
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