Bitcoin Price Faces $75K Risk as Trader Cost Basis Sets Key Test

The Bitcoin price is sitting at a decision point, with one analyst warning that a liquidity sweep around $87,000 could precede a deeper move toward $75,000. The proposed path is blunt, $85K, then $75K, $70K, and eventually a confirmation toward $100K.

That’s a forecast by the analyst, which is not a guarantee. The more useful question is whether the market can defend its underlying cost basis.

Bitcoin Price Faces A Crucial Cost-Basis Test

The Trader On-chain Realized Price currently sits near $68,900, while its upper band is around $96,500. Bitcoin has recovered above the baseline, but staying there matters more than simply reclaiming it.

Historical comparisons from 2019, 2020 and early 2023 show similar recovery phases where price moved above realized price before testing the underlying cost basis again.

Still, those periods differed in timing and didn’t establish a reliable success rate.

$87K Could Become The Market’s Next Trap

The analyst’s bearish setup centers on an $87,000 cluster, with a potential sweep followed by liquidation below $75,000. The proposed downside levels are $75K, $70K and the broader liquidity area below.

Meanwhile, the on-chain framework points to $68.9K as the more important structural reference.

A pullback toward that level would test whether demand can absorb selling near traders’ breakeven zone.

Holding Cost Basis Could Change Everything

If the Bitcoin price holds the Trader Realized Price and rebounds, demand would appear to be absorbing supply and could strengthen the case for another advance toward the $96,500 upper band.

But a sustained move below the baseline, followed by a failed reclaim, would tell a different story. Breakeven selling could remain stronger than fresh buying.

For now, the Bitcoin price has two competing narratives, a possible liquidity flush toward $70K-$75K and a recovery structure that remains intact above the trader cost basis.