Bitcoin Price Analysis: Is the Bull Run Losing Steam or Setting Up for a Major Rebound?

Bitcoin’s price extended its slide today, forming fresh intraday lows near $105,500 as market volatility deepened. Major altcoins mirrored the weakness, with Ethereum, Solana, and XRP posting moderate losses amid cautious trading. Yet, despite the decline, exchange data shows traders continue to hold onto their Bitcoin, suggesting conviction remains intact beneath the surface. With sentiment at a turning point, the question now is whether BTC’s latest dip marks the start of a deeper correction—or the calm before a rebound.

Exchange Outflows Strengthen Bullish Outlook

Exchange outflows play a major role in determining the investor sentiment across the markets. A rising trend reflects the indecisiveness among them, while a declining trend suggests the growing optimism among them. The data from CryptoQuant shows that the balance over the exchanges has dropped to the 2018 levels. Nearly 209,000 BTC—worth over $14 billion—have been withdrawn from centralized exchanges over the past six months. 

This steady outflow highlights growing investor confidence in self-custody and long-term accumulation. Historically, such withdrawals have coincided with bullish market phases, as fewer coins remain available for immediate sale.

If Bitcoin continues to consolidate near support, these outflows could signal that smart money is quietly accumulating, potentially setting the stage for a strong upward move once market sentiment improves. However, if prices fail to respond despite dwindling exchange balances, it may reflect weak demand or broader macro resistance limiting upside potential.

BTC Price Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

Bitcoin’s recent dip below $106,000 triggered mild panic among short-term traders, but the broader trend still shows a controlled pullback rather than a full breakdown. The price is currently hovering near the $105,500–$106,000 support zone, a region that has historically attracted strong buying interest. 

A rebound above $108,200 could reinstate bullish momentum and open the path toward $111,000, while failure to hold current levels may expose BTC to a deeper correction toward $102,500. For now, consolidation appears to be the dominant theme as traders weigh their next move.

The Bitcoin price chart indicates that BTC is moving within a descending parallel channel, signalling a sustained downtrend since July. After facing rejection near the channel’s midline, the price dropped to an intraday low of $105,500, testing the lower boundary of the range. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating a phase of declining volatility that often precedes a breakout. Meanwhile, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) continues to trend lower, reflecting weakening buying pressure. A rebound above $108,200 could signal a move toward $111,000–$114,000, while a breakdown below $105,000 might extend losses toward $100,600.

Final Thoughts: Will BTC Price Lose the $100K Threshold?

Bitcoin’s struggle near the lower boundary of its descending channel has amplified concerns about whether the $100K mark can hold as support. The continued decline in OBV suggests weakening buyer momentum, while narrowing Bollinger Bands hint at a decisive move ahead. If bulls fail to defend the current range, a drop toward $100,600 remains possible in the short term. However, consistent exchange outflows and long-term holding trends imply that any breakdown could be short-lived, setting the stage for a potential rebound once sentiment stabilises.