Bitcoin Enters ‘Trend-Shift’ Territory—Is a Breakout to New All-Time Highs on the Horizon?

Bitcoin is navigating a trend-shift zone as markets digest Jerome Powell’s latest Jackson Hole speech. The Fed Chair flagged rising downside risks to jobs while hinting at a possible September rate cut, even as tariff-driven inflation pressures remain a concern. Historically, Powell’s policy signals have heavily influenced crypto markets—dovish tones in past speeches have boosted Bitcoin’s momentum, while hawkish stances triggered sell-offs. With the BTC price now at a pivotal level, traders are watching closely for signs of a breakout toward a new ATH.

How Powell’s Past Speeches Moved Bitcoin

The Fed Chair acknowledged that the U.S. labour market is beginning to show signs of strain, raising the possibility of interest rate cuts sooner than expected. At the same time, he cautioned that tariff-driven inflation could complicate the outlook, forcing the Fed to balance growth risks with price stability. Powell’s remarks have consistently acted as a catalyst for Bitcoin price swings:

• Jackson Hole 2022: His hawkish stance on persistent inflation led BTC to drop nearly 8% in two days, erasing short-term bullish momentum.

• FOMC March 2023: When Powell signaled slower rate hikes, Bitcoin surged 12% in a week, marking one of its strongest rebounds that quarter.

• Jackson Hole 2024: A balanced but cautious tone on inflation saw BTC consolidate, holding support near $25,000 before resuming its uptrend weeks later.

This pattern shows how monetary policy language directly shapes Bitcoin’s volatility, with dovish hints fueling rallies and hawkish notes sparking sell-offs. Powell’s latest speech suggests the Fed is leaning dovish, acknowledging rising risks to employment and hinting at a potential September rate cut. Historically, such signals have bolstered Bitcoin as investors shift toward risk-on assets.

What’s Next for the Bitcoin Price Rally?

The recent comments from the FED chair have paused the BTC price plunge for a while, which was testing the pivotal support close to $112,500. A rebound to $117,500 has displayed investors’ confidence in the token as well as a strong presence of the bulls. However, the bulls have fallen weak as the price entered the resistance zone, which suggests the market participants may get yet another buying opportunity. 

As seen in the above chart, the BTC price continues to remain within a rising parallel channel, a bullish pattern. After the bounce from the support, the possibility of a sustained upswing prevails, but indicators like the supertrend, which has flipped bearish, raise concerns. Meanwhile, the MACD displays the possibility of a bullish crossover with a drop in the selling pressure. This could point towards a breakout towards the resistance of the channel if the price surpasses the resistance zone between $116,206 and $116,500. 

However, the crucial resistance to surpass is the average band of the channel around $119,400, which could validate the revival of the bull run to a new ATH, somewhere around $126,600.